Friday, July 23, 2010

China Brief - Volume X, Issue 15




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July 22, 2010 - Volume X, Issue 15

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IN THIS ISSUE:

In a Fortnight
By L.C. Russell Hsiao

The Chinese Navy's Emerging Support Network in the Indian Ocean
By Daniel J. Kostecka

Assessing the PLA's Promotion Ladder to CMC Member Based on Grades vs. Ranks – Part 1
By Kenneth W. Allen

China Building Africa's Economic Infrastructure: SEZs and Railroads
By Loro Horta

Chinese Analyses of Soviet Failure: The Dictatorship of the Proletariat
By Arthur Waldron
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A Century of Change:China and Modernization 1900 - Present

Jointly organized and hosted by:
Asian Division Friends Society of Library of Congress;
Institute for Religion and Society in Asia, Oxford, U.K.;
Confucius Institute at the University of Maryland

September 17 (Thursday), 2009 at the University of Maryland
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Featured Book

China in Africa examines the complexity of China's engagement with the African continent. The book covers critical issues such as Chinese soft and hard power, energy and arms relations, and China's bilateral relations with African countries. Ultimately, this volume serves to assist in improving policymakers' understanding of China's growing footprint on the continent and ensure that appropriate measures are taken to secure American interests in the region.


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Featured Report

The South China Sea Dispute: Increasing Stakes and Rising Tensions examines how China, over the past several years, has reverted to a more assertive posture in consolidating its jurisdictional claims, expanding its military reach and seeking to undermine the claims of other states through coercive diplomacy.


The South China Sea Dispute: Increasing Stakes and Rising Tensions

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Dear David,

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In a Fortnight

CHINA'S CYBER COMMAND?
By L.C. Russell Hsiao

The development of China's cyber warfare program has captured worldwide attention in recent years. While evolving doctrines and incidents of cyber intrusions with alleged links to the Chinese government have helped China watchers glean the development of China's growing cyber warfare capabilities, far less certainty surrounds the command and control side of this enigmatic operation. This is partly because key tasks of China's computer network operations and information warfare had been, until recently, decentralized in different departments in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff Headquarters (i.e. the Third and Fourth Departments) and specialized bureaus located in the different military regions.


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The Chinese Navy's Emerging Support Network in the Indian Ocean
By Daniel J. Kostecka

The ongoing debate in China over whether or not to formalize logistical support agreements for Chinese naval forces in the Indian Ocean is a natural outgrowth of the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) expanding presence in the region. As China continues to maintain a task group of warships off the Horn of Africa to conduct counter-piracy patrols, it is cultivating the commercial and diplomatic ties necessary to sustain its forces along these strategic sea-lanes. While Chinese government officials and academics debate the underlying issues, a supply network of "places" is quietly taking shape [1]. Regardless of whether or not the PLAN develops its support network through a series of formal agreements that guarantee access, or continues to supply its forces as it has been, that network is developing and will in all likelihood continue to grow in the foreseeable future.


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Assessing the PLA's Promotion Ladder to CMC Member Based on Grades vs. Ranks – Part 1
By Kenneth W. Allen

As China approaches the 18th Party Congress in late 2012, followed by the 12th National People's Congress (NPC) in early 2013, China watchers have begun to speculate about the next cadre of Chinese military leaders who will become members and vice chairmen of the Communist Party's Central Military Commission (CMC) [1]. The premise of these analyses tend to focus on which officers either already have or might receive their third star (shangjiang) as a general or admiral between now and 2012. Unlike the U.S. military, whose generals and admirals wear four stars, PLA generals and admirals wear only three stars. While military rank is an important distinction in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) hierarchy, a closer examination of the promotion path to becoming a CMC member reveals that it depends more on the PLA's 15-grade (zhiwu dengji) structure than its 10-rank (junxian) structure [2].


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China Building Africa's Economic Infrastructure: SEZs and Railroads
By Loro Horta

Starting in the late 1990s, China's presence on the African continent experienced a phenomenal expansion. Far more profound changes, however, have been underway and may only become apparent in the next decade.  These changes are likely to transform the regional economic landscape of the African continent in ways never seen before. Chinese experts apparently believe that Africa is entering an era of relative stability and that the time to explore its untapped resources has arrived [1]. Chinese policymakers see in Africa possible solutions to some of China's most pressing problems, for instance, Beijing's need to secure access to energy resources and other vital minerals to sustain the country's rapid economic growth. Yet Chinese interests in Africa extend beyond energy resources and minerals and clearly include markets, infrastructure development and agriculture. China's operations in Africa are becoming more diversified and multi-dimensional, and the Chinese government as well as private entrepreneurs has seemingly realized the need to look at large regions of Africa in an integrated fashion to maximize the benefits of its growing investments. This new approach has resulted in an ambitious plan, which was announced at the 2006 Forum on China and Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) meeting, to establish five special economic zones (SEZs) in Africa to attract Chinese investment and integrate China's comprehensive economic activities throughout the continent. In spite of the recent global economic downturn, this program appears to be gaining momentum.


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Chinese Analyses of Soviet Failure: The Dictatorship of the Proletariat
By Arthur Waldron

The centrality of the seemingly abstruse concept of the dictatorship of the proletariat to ongoing ideological debates in China was spotlighted recently in a wide ranging interview given by the 105 year old senior communist stalwart Zhou Youguang (1906-), best known for his invention of the system of Chinese-English transliteration known as hanyu pinyin. Reminiscing about what brought him to support the communists against the nationalists (Kuomintang), the linguist hearkened back to regular talks he and other intellectuals held in Chongqing during wartime with the future Prime Minister Zhou Enlai (1898-1976). In these discussions, Zhou assured his listeners authoritatively and convincingly that the communists would implement a democratic regime, far freer than that of Chiang Kai-shek (1887-1975) [1]. Mao Zedong (1893-1976) made a similar assurance in 1945, as the Chinese civil war was ending, telling a Reuters correspondent that "a free, democratic China would … realize the 'of the people, by the people, and for the people' concept of Abraham Lincoln and the 'four freedoms' proposed by Franklin Roosevelt" [2].  


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China Brief is a publication of the Jamestown Foundation and is edited by Mr. L.C. Russell Hsiao. The opinions expressed in it are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Jamestown Foundation. If you have any questions regarding the China Brief, please contact pubs@jamestown.org. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution of China Brief is strictly prohibited by law.


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--
Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death."  --
Albert Einstein !!!

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