a major looming crisis

A looming multiple crisis in Af Pak

Agha H Amin


The Afpak region is facing multiple crisis:--

1-Taliban versus Americans which will finally translate into Taliban versus the whole region.

2-The PPP as signified by presidency versus the supreme court.

3-The PPP versus media with GEO TV in the lead.

4-The MQM as PPPs most reliable ally and a Pakistani military establishment that views the MQM as an anachronism

5-The Baloch separatists versus the Pakistani state with the military in the lead

6-The inflation hit people of Pakistan whose economic helplessness is leading them into apathy and helplessness with occasional minority section trying to translate their anger into action which may be extremism , lone wolf terrorism , violent crime,suicidal tendencies , extreme intoxication.

7-The US establishment as signified by the Department of Defence,CIA,State Department and the Think Tanks who regard both the Pakistani military and the PPP as useful tools of policy execution.


afghanistan on brink of major breakdown

a major breakdown in afghanistan will affect not only afghanistan but pakistan and the whole region.

the new taliban tactics of attack are revolutionary and ground breaking

mc crystal strategy is breaking into pieces

any US withdrawal will enable the Taliban to turn their guns on the Pakistani state , India , Iran and Central Asian Republics.although a large part of Taliban in Afghanistan are thought to be good taliban by the pakistani military , these good taliban will come in conflict with their past benefactors.

Supreme Court

PPP hardliners were contemplating an attack on the court but were restrained because of attorney generals resignation.

A second plan was made but the military warned the PPP to be careful thus PM Gillanis statement of yesterday restraining the Babar Awan brigade.

The attorney general being ex army subaltern and a few courses juniour to gen kayani succeeded in restraining the PPP.He was told indirectly that gen kiani would be given an extension only if he requests for it , something that kayani would never do.

The attorney general saw light of the day and resigned.he views both the judiciary , the legal profession and the army as his father institutions and has loyalty towards all three.

the current of history has brought the judiciary and the generals on a commpn platform and the threat to the PPP as represented by the President comes from the combined generals and judges strategic legion , both on a common platform because of a multiple number of reasons national , class and personal ,But nevertheless a dangerous combination.



Karachi MQM and Sindh

The military views the MQM as an anachronism and a contradiction .Why it is so and whether its right and wrong is a separate issue.

The mysterious killings in Karachi hint at a deliberate attempt by some forces to pave the way for an operation in karachi.

GEO versus PPP

The GEO TV for a multitude of reasons has been on warpath with the presidency .Now it appears that the fight will enter a final stage in the aftermath of the Hamid Mir Affair.

GEO seems to have a linkage with the generals , indeed most of the prime media has with relatives of the militarys media boss :--


Zaffar Abbas is the chief of DAWN

Azhar Abbas is the chief of GEO

Mazhar Abbas is almost the chief of ARY


While the US establishment as summed up above regards President Zardari and the PPP as a useful policy execution tool , in case of an impending breakdown the US will bet on the military and the Pakistani politicians will be ditched.In three years the Pakistani political leadership has shown a remarkable lack of finnesse and grasp of civil military relations and lost credibility with US policy makers.

Thus a new political change in Pakistan is round the corner but the above discussed multiple factors are all combining to really make Pakistan the most dangerous place in the world.

In the final summing up all would lose including Pakistan,India,Iran Russia and China.

As they say in hitory the wind and the waves are on side of the ablest navigators.Here we have a case of bad navigation and leadership by all major regional actors.