and Internet
MFA Centre for Political Research (Jerusalem)
August 4, 2010
A. Background: Iran-Taliban relations
1) The relations between Iran and the Taliban are characterized by
profound ideological and religious enmity, with a revolutionary Shiite
state opposed to an orthodox Sunni Salafi organization.
In the 1990s during the Afghan civil war Iran supported the Northern
Alliance composed mainly of Hazari Shiites and Tadjiks against the
largely Pashtoon Taliban. When the Taliban overran the country in
1996, Khamenei, leader of Iran, condemned them as an insult to Islam.
In 1998 nine Iranian diplomats were killed by Taliban – almost leading
to war between the two states. When the Taliban lost, the Iranians
were quick to open an Embassy in Kabul to support the new regime.
2) However in recent years data has been obtained from open sources,
Arab, Islamic and Western, indicating unofficial Iranian support for
the Taliban or its factions in the war against Western forces in
Afghanistan. Weapons were supplied and training for Taliban fighters
took place in Iran (details in annex). The armaments were mostly light
weapons, improvised explosives, mines or non-guided anti tank weapons.
Methodologies:
3) The following analysis is based on data drawn from a broad range of
media - Islamic and Western - all testifying to Iranian-Taliban ties.
We assess, in the light of data appearing in many channels over
several years, that it is fairly reliable.
The data derives from definitely Jihadi websites as well as those
accessible to the public. We have chosen to use veteran Jihadi
websites that unfailingly provide much insight into the thinking of
Global Jihad activists (particularly from al-Qaeda) who maintain
strong ideological and operational ties with the Taliban. Writers
cited in these fora are "regulars" who have been active for years and
maintain mutual ties with Jihadi colleagues.
B) Analysis and assessment:
1) All checked sources indicate a clear trend of arms supplies from
Iran to the Taliban. Given that these reports persist over several
years and in significant numbers, it is hard to believe that it took
place without the knowledge of the Iranian authorities.
However opinions differ concerning the degree of direct involvement by
the Iranian regime in aid to the Taliban. Possibly Iranians
unconnected with the regime (criminals) may be engaged in arms
trafficking to the Taliban. Also, possibly some elements in the
Iranian government send arms without informing other government
branches. For example, activists of the Revolutionary Guards (through
the 4th Mashhad Corps which is assigned the promotion of Iranian
influence in central Asia) may be acting without the knowledge of the
Iranian Foreign Ministry.
2) We estimate that arms transfer patterns show that Iran is
interested in a low profile in its contacts with the Taliban and so
does not supply weapons that could tilt the balance of power as it
does with regard to the Hezbollah in Lebanon (guided antitank missiles
or ground to ground rockets) or weapons of the type supplied by the
USA to the Mujahideen in the 1980s (ground to air missiles that caused
significant losses to the USSR air force).
We understand that introducing balance-tilting weapons by Iran into
Afghanistan would - as the Iranians see it - put them into direct
conflict with the USA.
3) Therefore it seems that arms transfers to Afghanistan from Iran are
carried out deviously, enabling tracks to be hidden. There are several
informal methods for arms trafficking including utilizing Afghanis
living in Iran by the Revolutionary Guards or by VAVAK (The internal
Intelligence and Security Ministry). About 900 thousand Afghanis live
legally in Iran having fled during the Soviet invasion in addition to
a million and a half illegal refugees from there. Most of the Afghanis
in Iran are Hazari Shiite, but large numbers are Sunni who can link to
pro-Taliban or al-Qaeda forces. After 2002 when the West took over
Afghanistan the flow of people and funds across the border increased.
According to the American Institute of Afghan Studies some 500 million
dollars cross from Iran to Afghanistan yearly.
Press reports say that Al-Qaeda activists are present in Iran and they
are estimated at several hundred under strict regime control.
Another means of arms smuggling uses smugglers operating in the
Afghan-Iran-Pakistan border area. While there are no reliable figures
for arms smuggling there are more accurate estimates for other types
of smuggled goods: 90% of all global heroin originates in Afghanistan
and about a third of all drugs smuggles via Iran come by smugglers in
the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Balochistan border area. Iran has a large
number of opium addicts (over 2 million – The Institute for the Study
of War). In recent years Iran invested a billion dollars in barriers
to stop smuggling and since the foundation of the republic in 1979
over 3500 Iranian police have been killed fighting the smugglers.
The Iranian angle:
4) Iran would like to see US and NATO troops withdrawn as such a
massive US presence on the eastern border causes unease in Teheran.
Iran fears that Afghanistan may be used by the USA as a springboard
for attack should Washington so decide.
5) An American withdrawal might create a political vacuum if the
central authority in Kabul collapsed, in which case Iranian influence
in western Afghanistan would increase. This would enable the
establishment of a buffer zone east of Iran. Historically there have
been ties between Hirat in western Afghanistan and Iran - Hirat was a
Persian capital in the 15th century. Iran has of late worked to deepen
her economic hold on this province by trade ties and setting up
transport and energy networks. From an ethnic point of view most of
Western Afghanistan is populated by Tadjiks who are close to Persian
culture. Iranian ambitions in the whole of Afghanistan and central
Asia would be further encouraged by a US withdrawal.
6) The controlled escalation of violence in Afghanistan steadily
weakens US troops there, thus reducing US readiness to open new fronts
in the future. In July 2007 the Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki said
the US was unable to mount military operations against additional
factors (Fars July 30, 2007) and it seems his statement reflects the
Iranian reading that the USA will refrain from taking military action
against Iran while still embroiled in Iraq and Afghanistan.
7) With this in mind it appears that limited Iranian support for the
Taliban is designed to signal to the USA that it has destructive
potential in Afghanistan. The possibility of escalating support for
Taliban in quantity and quality can further undermine Afghan stability
and thus deter the USA. The threat of provoking a flare-up in
Afghanistan by smuggling more sophisticated weapons affords Iran - in
its estimate - a means to restrain the USA from taking action on
matters of conflict such as the nuclear question.
8) We estimate that with the potential for destructiveness Iran is
also signaling that it could be useful to the USA in calming the
situation in Afghanistan. Iran sees itself as a regional power able to
participate in deciding regional problems and arrangements. This
explains Mottaki's statement in Kabul (Fars July 20) that any regional
arrangement will need the active participation of regional states.
9) To sum up, when it suits Iranian interests, Iran can abandon its
rigid ideology and adopt a pragmatic policy that contradicts
ideological considerations, such as aiding a Sunni Salafi organization
like the Taliban. Similarly Iran has been helping the Sunni Hamas in
Gaza.
Annex: Open Islamic and Western sources on Iranian military aid to the Taliban:
1) Selected Arab and Islamic sources:
Al-Sharafa News website (June 8, 2010) in an article confirmed that
Iran was helping the Taliban. Most of the material is derived from
unnamed sources interviewed on "Central Asia OnLine". Details follow:
A senior military source in West Afghanistan confirmed at a meeting of
the National Assembly (June 2-4) in the presence of cabinet and
parliament members and local notables that the Taliban men are
training in Iran which then sends them back to Afghanistan. He said
Afghan forces had uncovered large caches of Iranian weapons. He added
that Iran enjoyed economic and cultural influence over large parts of
Afghanistan especially in the provinces of Hirat, Farah, Namruz and
Badghis, and he said Iranian weapons were also being sent to Kabul and
Ghazni provinces in the centre, Kunduz and Balkh in the north and
Helmand and Kandahar in the south.
Speakers at the meeting were backed by Sibghatullah Mojaddedi – a
former leader who today is Chairman of the Afghan Senate. He accused
Iran of smuggling arms and training Taliban terrorists. Another
Afghani who once belonged to the Taliban and now supports Karzai
confirmed the close ties between the Iranian revolutionary guards and
many rebel groups. Leaders in Helmand province accused Pakistan and
Iran of support for the Taliban, and according to Ahmed Shah Bason,
head of the War and Peace Journalism Institute (Maahad Sahafat al Harb
wassalaam) in Helmand, the Iranians seek influence in order to attain
strategic advantage over the long term while the short-term aim is to
weaken the Coalition. Another former Taliban member who turned himself
in in 2009 admitted that he had been trained in Iran. He said that
while living there as a refugee, strangers backed by the Iranian
government had offered him a high salary for joining the Taliban. He
said his recruiters brought him to Hirat where he was trained for 6
months by Pakistani and Iranian officers and then the trainees were
given weapons and told to attack Afghani leaders and installations.
A report of the Akhbar al-Aan News channel quoted an Afghani newspaper
that said the Taliban had training camps in Iran. Knowledgeable
sources told the paper that some of the Taliban operating in the west
- Namruz and Helmand - had "safe centers" and training camps in Iran.
They said armed Taliban groups trained in Kerman and Khorasan. Also,
it was written that Iranian arms had been found in West Afghanistan.
(Akhbar al-Aan –Youtube-January 21, 2009)
A Bahraini website reported the trial of five Bahrainis some of whom
were caught after joining al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Iraq. From the
evidence it appears that one of the accused admitted he had gone to
Iran for al-Qaeda training. There he had met the leader of al-Qaeda in
Iran and was helped to go to Waziristan and join up with the Taliban
(Aqasis al-Bahrain –no date)
Jihadi Fora:
In an article published by the Jihadi forum Muntadayat al-Baraq
al-Islamiya, one Khabab ben Marwan al-Hamad quoted an intelligence
source confirming that already in 2006 arms were being smuggled -
despite difficulties - into Afghanistan via Iran. But Marwan said most
of the weapons came from Iraq and mainly from Kurdistan (May 3, 2006).
A discussion (June 2-3, 2010) between members of the Jihadi forum
"Shabakat Haneen" Abu Anas al-Maqdisi, Ayad01 and Muslim who supported
Iranian aid to the Taliban, and a student of al-Jaysh al-Islami
(Islamic Army) and a member of the Moslem Brotherhood/Hamas called Di
Qar who opposed it: Most of the participants - members of al-Qaeda-
referred to Iranian aid as a fact and some vehemently rejected US
allegations as being propaganda aimed at denigrating the Taliban for
taking aid from the "impure" Iranians. Following are details of the
discussion:
al-Maqdisi lectured his friends (June 2):" Why shouldn't Iran train
and support the Taliban?" He saw it as a meeting of interests because
Iran wanted to put pressure on the USA while Taliban needed help to
improve their assaults on US troops. He stressed that in time of war
the Taliban should seek help everywhere given certain rules. The Iraqi
Jihadist Ayad01 said the Iranian interest was to keep the USA occupied
and added that Iraq was a good example of Iranian involvement noting
that Syria was helping some of the factions at the request of Iran. He
was supported by Muslim (June 3) who mentioned that al-Qaeda and
Taliban once enjoyed USA support in the war against the USSR, "so what
is the difference?" he asked.(Haneen network).
Abu Anas al-Maqdisi answered (June 3) the Hamas/Moslem Brotherhood
activist Di Qar who objected to any Iranian help. He said that had
Hamas waited for help from heaven they would never had withstood the
Zionists. A theological debate ensued between him and students of
al-Jaysh al-Islami with al-Maqdisi quoting scripture permitting aid
even from infidels (Iran) in time of war: "Have you not read the
Hadith of the Prophet who borrowed armor from a Jew in order to kill
infidels?"(Shabakat Haneen June 2-3, 2010)
In a Bahraini forum (January 26, 2010) " al-Jarah al-qadeem" (the Old
Wound) it was said that Muhammad al-Awfi, a former al-Qaeda leader,
quoted Ben Laden's deputy Ayman a-Zawahiri as having sent a letter of
thanks to Iran for training Taliban men. He said there also existed a
documentary film about the training given to Taliban in Iran.
(Muntadayat Mamlakat al-Bahrain Jan-Feb 2010)
The conspiratorial angle was provided in the forum called "Sahat
al-Tayaran al-Arabi" (Arab Flight arena):
Bidh al-Nawaya ("Pure Intent") said (June 4, 2010) that Iranian help
was sent to the Shiite Taliban recently set up by Iran to confound the
Sunni Taliban. To which Ibn Tariq (6.4.10) said it was wrong for
Moslems to mix theological problems with daily life and said that
while Sunnis disagree theologically with Iran they work together
against the American enemy: "The enemy of my enemy is my friend".
In the Yahoo "Maktoob" forum which (October 2010) became the scene of
recriminations between Hezbollah , al-Qaeda and Taliban supporters, a
forum member al-Yasser (October 21, 2010) said to Hezbollah supporters
that Iran gave refuge to al-Qaeda and Taliban members as well as arms
and money. "If you say you are anti-American why do you attack the
Taliban?" he asked (Maktoob).
2) Selected Western sources:
On April 17, 2007 the New York Times wrote about the interception of
Iranian weapons in Kandahar province. US army sources said the cache
included plastic explosives and mortar shells. Analysis showed it had
been made in Iran.
In June 2007 a Jane's correspondent Rahu Bedi said the USA had
evidence to show that weapons were reaching the Taliban. Global
Security (June 27, 2007) quoted Robert Gates as suspecting direct
Iranian involvement in sending weapons to the Taliban. He said it was
possible the Taliban was buying from non-governmental Iranian sources
such as crime gangs. But given the quantities it was unlikely the
Iranian government was not involved.
On August 5, 2007 Times on Line reported that NATO sources said the
Taliban had EFP (armour piercing charges) made only in Iran.
On September 21, 2007 the Washington Post wrote according to official
NATO sources that a large arms consignment captured that month in West
Afghanistan originated without doubt in Iran with the knowledge of the
Iranian army. Interviewed by the paper (September 7, 2007) NATO
Commander General McNeill said the arms had been caught in Farah
province in west Afghanistan near the Iranian border and contained
sophisticated IED charges of the type that had been used against US
forces in Iraq. They had been made in Iran. McNeill added that it was
hard to imagine the bombs could have been smuggled without the
knowledge of the Iranian army –the Revolutionary Guards. The paper
said that in April and May of that year two smaller consignments had
been caught in Helmand with the same type of bombs.
ABC news on January 27, 2008 reported a raid by Western forces on an
arms store in Western Afghanistan where 60 Iranian mines were found.
On June 22, 2008 the British paper Guardian said British officials had
sent a letter to Teheran with details of Iranian aid to the Taliban.
POM Gordon Brown had warned Ahmedinijad that Britain would freeze
Iranian assets in the UK should that aid continue.
On June 8, 2009 the Telegraph wrote that the Afghan border police in
West Afghanistan on May 23rd had intercepted an Iranian consignment to
the Taliban with a dozen anti-tank mines. That same month in Marj,
Helmand province,
44 dynamite bricks and 12 Iranian mortar shells were found.
On October 7, 2009 CBS reported finding Iranian arms caches in Western
Afghanistan including 82mm mortar shells, grenade launchers and armor
piercing IEDs.
On March 23, 2010 CNN quoted a US officer as saying that Taliban
forces were training in Iran in light arms. A CIA veteran was quoted
who accused Iran of sending IEDs to attack the armor used by NATO
infantry.
On March 31, 2010 Reuters quoted Admiral Mike Mullen (CJCOS) on the
interception of a large Iranian arms consignment in Kandahar.
On April 2, 2010 CNN quoting US intelligence said another Iranian arms
consignment had been caught in Afghanistan.
On May 30, 2010 Huffpost online quoted General McCrystal, former US
commander in Afghanistan as saying Iran was arming and training
Taliban men.
(Tomer Rival and Meir Nuama- military dept)
--
Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear
of punishment and hope of reward after death." --
Albert Einstein !!!
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http://www.scribd.com/doc/21952758/1971-India-Pakistan-War
http://www.scribd.com/doc/25171703/BOOK-REVIEWS-BY-AGHA-H-AMIN
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