A.H Amin
Lately an idea that Pakistan is on the brink of a revolution been
floated by some politicians.
While politicians make statements as a habit , anything predicting
revolution needs to be supported by a clear sense of history,a
detailed study of the anatomy of a revolution and a deep study of
history , done with fanatical and utmost devotion to the idea of
reading history for historys sake.
A revolution is not a dinner party as someone said ! It is not a
political rally but a grand and traumatic event of history which
occurs rarely and when it does destroys the vast bulk of a country
both morally and materially.
It is worth examining how and why revolutions have succeeded :--
1-The French Revolution , whose success had a great deal to do with
the Paris mob.Note that many countries in Europe had far greater party
than France.It was the series of diasastorous wars of Rance , high
political awareness and above all the ruthless and troublesome mob
that made the French Revolution a success.In Pakistan we have no
Islamabad or Rawalpindi mob , anywhere near the Paris mob ! That is
why Pakistans elite shifted the capital to Punjab in late 1950s ! In
Asia we have a parallel in Iran in shape of the Bazaar mob identified
by political analysts.
2-A major condition of revolution is that it takes place in a countrys
political heartland.In this case Pakistans political heartland is the
tract in between Lahore-Islamabad-Faisalabad-Sahiwal.The Punjabis
politically have been traditionally placid and categoried as lotus
eaters in pre partition India.They are emotional at personal level but
politically difficult to stir or manipulate.In 1977 I met a Pathan
brigadier , who later became a generL .He was disgusted that while
300 killings in Karachi by security forces no affect on the army , a
mere two killed in Anarkali severely affected the military with some
three brigadiers resigning and many majors and colonels following suit
! In the present case the Punjabi heartland defined above is
unaffected.Even the floods have affected only the Seraiki belt in
Pakistan or the Sindhis and Baloch ! There was a reason why the
capital was shifted from Karachi to Islamabad in 1958.The fact remains
that the political heartland of Pakistan is still the beneficiary of
resources and the peculiar agro-industrial system of Pakistan .The
planned procession from Lahore to Islamabad to restore the chief
justice thus succeeded because it was a Punjabi affair in the
political heartland .Nawaz Sharif although a Kashmiri did succeed in
galvanizing the politically inert Punjabis ! Even the Chief Justice
Iftikhar although he had supporters Pakistan wide was restored in the
final analysis because he belonged to Pakistans political heartland
and had supporters there !
3-Defeat in war is one great cause of revolution.Revolutions took
place in countries defeated in long bloody wars like Russia in 1917 ,
Germany in 1918 (although this one failed) and Turkey in 1919-23.This
happens because the miltary the principal coercive weapon of the elite
loses its coercive value or mutinies and joins the revolutionaries.In
Pakistan this condition is still distant.The military is intact and
retains its coercive value and respect albeit devalued in the masses
in at least the majority Punjab and parts of NWFP , Sindh and Pashtun
districts of Balochistan.
4-Extreme repression as in Iran in shape of long monarchy and ruthless
agencies like SAVAK.This is not the case in Pakistan either.
5-Long drawn civil war spread over two to three decades as happened in
China in 1911-49.This too is still an initial stage in Pakistan
although it is the closest parallel keeping in view the internal wars
in Balochistan and FATA/NWFP and many parts of Punjab and Sindh.
6-The most important pre -requisite of a revolution is a main stream
political group that sees revolution as a political startegy or a
select group of fanatics who sees revolution or a violent coup meant
to carry out a ruthless revolution as a modus operandi.Pakistans
mainstream political parties consist of landlords and industrialists
and businessmen and do not fall in this category.MQM is a regional
party and Tehreek i Insaaf lacks that fanatical zeal and
organisation.The closest parallel here are the Islamic extremists but
their success also seems a decade or half a decade away.
6-A progressive revolution spearheaded by the military and
particularly the younger or mid level element.Not impossible but at
least five to ten years away and that too if the army goes through a
viloent conventional or a protracted civil war.
Seen in this context the pakistani revolution seems a far cry !
More likely in case of Pakistan would be anarchy and a slow slide into
Balkanisation , if Pakistan continues its non state proxy wars
sponsored by state elements in its neighbouring countries.
Pakistans salvation lies in better organisation and reform rather than
a revolution ! A revolution ina ll probability will break Pakistan
into pieces because it is a multi ethnic country.
In the end ethnicity matters ! The Muslims of Delhi and Punjab were
saved by English East India Company from Afghans and Marathas in 1803
and 1849.The Bengali Muslims from Pakistan Army by the Indian Army in
1971 ! It would be no surprise if the Indian Army carries out another
rescue mission in the future , if the Pakistani state continues to be
stupid and Machiavellian in dealing with Balochistan and FATA.
As one with a military background I can state that the Pakistani
military regards the MQM and Altaf as an Indian proxy , although both
the impressions I think are fallacious ! But so was Mujib regarded in
1971 , although he wanted Bengali rights usurped by West Pakistanis
from 1947 till 1988.
As they say only good things happen with the bad and bad things happen
with the good !
Thus revolution in Pakistan is a utopian and unrealistic hope !
--
Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear
of punishment and hope of reward after death." --
Albert Einstein !!!
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22151765/History-of-Pakistan-Army-from-1757-to-1971
http://www.scribd.com/doc/21686885/TALIBAN-WAR-IN-AFGHANISTAN
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22455178/Letters-to-Command-and-Staff-College-Quetta-Citadel-Journal
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23150027/Pakistan-Army-through-eyes-of-Pakistani-Generals
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23701412/War-of-Independence-of-1857
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22457862/Pakistan-Army-Journal-The-Citadel
http://www.scribd.com/doc/21952758/1971-India-Pakistan-War
http://www.scribd.com/doc/25171703/BOOK-REVIEWS-BY-AGHA-H-AMIN
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