Saudi Arabia's Threat Perception
By RSN Singh
While Saudi Arabia forms the core of Muslim religious sentiments, there are also pulls exercised by the forces of modernisation, which have been unleashed primarily by its oil wealth. The Saudi authorities, therefore, may have to perpetually grapple with traditionalists and fundamentalists. Such elements even though contained, continue to loom large in Saudi Arabia's security perceptions. These elements have been questioning the legitimacy of the Al Saud ruling dynasty. The threat posed by the traditionalists has had serious manifestation in 1979, when at least 500 dissidents invaded and seized the Grand Mosque in Mecca.
Saudi Arabia's security is intertwined with the security of other Sheikhdoms that dot the southern part of the Persian Gulf.The leader of the dissidents, Juhaiman ibn Muhammad ibn Saif al Utaiba, a Sunni, was from one of the influential families of Najd. His justification for the siege of the Mosque was that the Al Saud had lost its legitimacy to rule because of corrupt, wayward and western ways. Eventually, the military and the National Guard had to be called in to salvage the Grand Mosque from the dissidents. Two months after this incident, there were Shia riots in Al Qatif in Eastern Province. Many of the rioters bore posters with Khomeini's picture. The riots, a fall out of the radicalisation of the Shias had serious economic overtones as the Eastern Province, which is home to the majority of the Shia population, contains a dense network of oil and gas pipelines.
The main oil company, Aramco had involved or employed a large number of Shias in its oil set up in the Eastern Province as it afforded indirect security due to the economic stakes of the local population. The Saudi authorities have persisted with this policy consequent to the takeover of the Aramco oil company in 1988.
Saudi Arabia's security is intertwined with the security of other Sheikhdoms that dot the southern part of the Persian Gulf. The upstaging of any of the ruling families in these smaller states may have a cascading effect, which could finally threaten the Saudi ruling dispensation. Moreover, the oil industry and economic links between these countries that together form the GCC is strong and extensive. The physical violation of the territory of these countries cannot take place without impacting on the territorial integrity of one or more of the other states. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait demonstrated the security symbiosis between Saudi Arabia and the smaller coastal states.
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Following the invasion, nearly 4,00,000 Kuwaitis including the Royal Family had fled and sought refuge in Saudi Arabia. Saudi territory too was violated by the Iraqi Army in the 1991 Gulf War and eventually subsumed all the GCC countries. Saudi Arabia is, therefore, the pivot upon which the security of the GCC countries swivels.
That Saudi Arabia has not been able to ideologically, financially and militarily de-fang the terrorist groups is evident from the vicious killings of westerners engaged in various pursuits.Until Iraq militarily threatened Saudi Arabia on its northeastern border after the occupation of Kuwait, the country had experienced very few direct threats to its territory. The only overtly hostile actions were from Yemen based Egyptian air and naval units in 1963; the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) forces that attacked Saudi border posts in 1969 and 1973; and Iranian attacks on shipping in the 1980s. During the Cold War, Saudi security concerns were cantered on communist influence in nearby countries like Ethiopia and PDRY (erstwhile South Yemen), which gave the Soviet Union access to naval facilities in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia interpreted the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 as a means of their establishing a staging area for future operations in the Persian Gulf.
The Iran-Iraq War, which resulted in the Tanker War in the Persian Gulf and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, compelled Saudi Arabia to re-appraise its security priorities. Consequently the kingdom realised that the most sensitive and pressing vulnerabilities were its vast geographic expanse, lengthy coastlines, and small and scattered population. These presented formidable problems for defence. Moreover, Saudi Arabia's oil wealth made it a tempting target. If Saudi Arabia were to go overboard in its espousal of the Palestinian cause or in exercise of its influential role with the OIC, OPEC or GCC, it may usher in strategic responses from quarters that have vital security and energy stakes in the region. It is quite possible that this factor may have lent its weight in deciding upon 'Operation Iraqi Freedom' by the US and its allies, as Iraq with its oil wealth has the strategic potential to counterbalance Saudi Arabia.
That Saudi Arabia has not been able to ideologically, financially and militarily de-fang the terrorist groups is evident from the vicious killings of westerners engaged in various pursuits. Of the 54,000 workforce of Aramco, approximately 3,000 are westerners. On 1 May 2004, six westerners were killed at the ABB Lummus in Yanbu. The Al Qaeda had claimed responsibility for this attack. Subsequently, nearly 100 employees working on a joint Sabic / Exxon-Mobil refinery project left the country. The Yanbu attack was followed by another incident in last week of May 2004 in which 22 people (mainly foreigners) were killed in a residential compound in Khobar. During the first two weeks of June 2004, several westerners were murdered including one who was kidnapped and beheaded.
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No personal rivalry or fissures within the royal family have come to the surface so far, however, schisms owing to policy differences over issues such as the: closeness of ties with the US, or the extent and role of the religious establishment, may not be completely discounted. In the Saudi Royal Family, as is the case with many other monarchies in the region, intrigues are not without precedence. In March 1975, King Faisal was assassinated by his nephew. Curiously, this incident had followed the Arab-Israel War, which had triggered a three-fold rise in world oil prices due to Saudi led Arab boycott of countries supporting Israel.Saudi Arabia strongly maintains that Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism cannot be effectively curbed unless the Palestinian issue that provides the ideological ammunition to these activities is resolved.Saudi Arabia has resolved various contentious boundary issues with most of its neighbours. In 1975, a demarcation agreement was hammered between Abu Dhabi, Oman and Saudi Arabia with regard to the Al Buryami Oasis, where the frontiers of these three states meet. The neutral zone that it shared with Iraq (7,000 sq km) and Kuwait (5,790 sq km) was equitably divided with each of these countries in 1981 and 1965 respectively. These neutral zones were created consequent to agreements between Saudi rulers and British officials in 1922 (representing Iraqi and Kuwaiti interests), with the purpose of safeguarding the water rights of the Bedouins of these countries. Saudi Arabia's relations with Yemen have been troubled in modern times. The border has witnessed periodic tribal clashes and boundary disputes.
The reunification of divided Yemen in May 1990, was a disconcerting development for Saudi Arabia as it felt that the more populous combined Yemen with leftist leanings might impact on the Islamic conservative dispensation of Saudi Arabia. Relations between the two countries worsened when Yemen came out in support of Iraq after the latter's invasion of Kuwait. In retaliation, Saudi Arabia had repatriated more than one million Yemeni workers. Long stretches of uninhabited desert, known as the 'Empty Quarter' or Rub al Khali form the disputed territory between Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
The two countries, however, signed a border agreement in June 2000, which delineated the sections of their common border, which had been in dispute since 1930. Nomadic groups on the border region with Yemen, however, continue to resist the boundary demarcation. Since the boundary demarcation with UAE has not been made public, the exact boundary alignment is still approximate. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are yet to demarcate their long-contested maritime boundary with Iran despite prolonged negotiations.
In addition to the economic impact of the 1991 Gulf War, which cost the regional countries US $ 676 billion and US $ 60 billion to Saudi Arabia alone, there were also far reaching sociological and political manifestations. There emerged a sizeable constituency within the kingdom that openly began to question the country's political and religious framework, which they considered regressive. It exposed the inherent inadequacies of the government in ensuring the sovereignty of the country, and security of its peoples, without western assistance. Moreover, it caused a polarisation between the traditionalists and modernists in a manner that was never so pronounced.
Although Saudi Arabia does not have any common border with Israel, it could well be engulfed by a war, which may involve Israel, especially over the Palestinian issue. Such threats have reared up in the past. Saudi Arabia strongly maintains that Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism cannot be effectively curbed unless the Palestinian issue that provides the ideological ammunition to these activities is resolved.
While Saudi Arabia forms the core of Muslim religious sentiments, there are also pulls exercised by the forces of modernisation, which have been unleashed primarily by its oil wealth. The Saudi authorities, therefore, may have to perpetually grapple with traditionalists and fundamentalists. Such elements even though contained, continue to loom large in Saudi Arabia's security perceptions. These elements have been questioning the legitimacy of the Al Saud ruling dynasty. The threat posed by the traditionalists has had serious manifestation in 1979, when at least 500 dissidents invaded and seized the Grand Mosque in Mecca.
The main oil company, Aramco had involved or employed a large number of Shias in its oil set up in the Eastern Province as it afforded indirect security due to the economic stakes of the local population. The Saudi authorities have persisted with this policy consequent to the takeover of the Aramco oil company in 1988.
Saudi Arabia's security is intertwined with the security of other Sheikhdoms that dot the southern part of the Persian Gulf. The upstaging of any of the ruling families in these smaller states may have a cascading effect, which could finally threaten the Saudi ruling dispensation. Moreover, the oil industry and economic links between these countries that together form the GCC is strong and extensive. The physical violation of the territory of these countries cannot take place without impacting on the territorial integrity of one or more of the other states. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait demonstrated the security symbiosis between Saudi Arabia and the smaller coastal states.
The Iran-Iraq War, which resulted in the Tanker War in the Persian Gulf and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, compelled Saudi Arabia to re-appraise its security priorities. Consequently the kingdom realised that the most sensitive and pressing vulnerabilities were its vast geographic expanse, lengthy coastlines, and small and scattered population. These presented formidable problems for defence. Moreover, Saudi Arabia's oil wealth made it a tempting target. If Saudi Arabia were to go overboard in its espousal of the Palestinian cause or in exercise of its influential role with the OIC, OPEC or GCC, it may usher in strategic responses from quarters that have vital security and energy stakes in the region. It is quite possible that this factor may have lent its weight in deciding upon 'Operation Iraqi Freedom' by the US and its allies, as Iraq with its oil wealth has the strategic potential to counterbalance Saudi Arabia.
That Saudi Arabia has not been able to ideologically, financially and militarily de-fang the terrorist groups is evident from the vicious killings of westerners engaged in various pursuits. Of the 54,000 workforce of Aramco, approximately 3,000 are westerners. On 1 May 2004, six westerners were killed at the ABB Lummus in Yanbu. The Al Qaeda had claimed responsibility for this attack. Subsequently, nearly 100 employees working on a joint Sabic / Exxon-Mobil refinery project left the country. The Yanbu attack was followed by another incident in last week of May 2004 in which 22 people (mainly foreigners) were killed in a residential compound in Khobar. During the first two weeks of June 2004, several westerners were murdered including one who was kidnapped and beheaded.
The reunification of divided Yemen in May 1990, was a disconcerting development for Saudi Arabia as it felt that the more populous combined Yemen with leftist leanings might impact on the Islamic conservative dispensation of Saudi Arabia. Relations between the two countries worsened when Yemen came out in support of Iraq after the latter's invasion of Kuwait. In retaliation, Saudi Arabia had repatriated more than one million Yemeni workers. Long stretches of uninhabited desert, known as the 'Empty Quarter' or Rub al Khali form the disputed territory between Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
The two countries, however, signed a border agreement in June 2000, which delineated the sections of their common border, which had been in dispute since 1930. Nomadic groups on the border region with Yemen, however, continue to resist the boundary demarcation. Since the boundary demarcation with UAE has not been made public, the exact boundary alignment is still approximate. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are yet to demarcate their long-contested maritime boundary with Iran despite prolonged negotiations.
In addition to the economic impact of the 1991 Gulf War, which cost the regional countries US $ 676 billion and US $ 60 billion to Saudi Arabia alone, there were also far reaching sociological and political manifestations. There emerged a sizeable constituency within the kingdom that openly began to question the country's political and religious framework, which they considered regressive. It exposed the inherent inadequacies of the government in ensuring the sovereignty of the country, and security of its peoples, without western assistance. Moreover, it caused a polarisation between the traditionalists and modernists in a manner that was never so pronounced.
Although Saudi Arabia does not have any common border with Israel, it could well be engulfed by a war, which may involve Israel, especially over the Palestinian issue. Such threats have reared up in the past. Saudi Arabia strongly maintains that Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism cannot be effectively curbed unless the Palestinian issue that provides the ideological ammunition to these activities is resolved.
http://www.indiandefencereview.com/IDR-Updates/Saudi-Arabias-Threat-Percetion.htmlSaudi Arabia's security is intertwined with the security of other Sheikhdoms that dot the southern part of the Persian Gulf.The leader of the dissidents, Juhaiman ibn Muhammad ibn Saif al Utaiba, a Sunni, was from one of the influential families of Najd. His justification for the siege of the Mosque was that the Al Saud had lost its legitimacy to rule because of corrupt, wayward and western ways. Eventually, the military and the National Guard had to be called in to salvage the Grand Mosque from the dissidents. Two months after this incident, there were Shia riots in Al Qatif in Eastern Province. Many of the rioters bore posters with Khomeini's picture. The riots, a fall out of the radicalisation of the Shias had serious economic overtones as the Eastern Province, which is home to the majority of the Shia population, contains a dense network of oil and gas pipelines.
The main oil company, Aramco had involved or employed a large number of Shias in its oil set up in the Eastern Province as it afforded indirect security due to the economic stakes of the local population. The Saudi authorities have persisted with this policy consequent to the takeover of the Aramco oil company in 1988.
Saudi Arabia's security is intertwined with the security of other Sheikhdoms that dot the southern part of the Persian Gulf. The upstaging of any of the ruling families in these smaller states may have a cascading effect, which could finally threaten the Saudi ruling dispensation. Moreover, the oil industry and economic links between these countries that together form the GCC is strong and extensive. The physical violation of the territory of these countries cannot take place without impacting on the territorial integrity of one or more of the other states. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait demonstrated the security symbiosis between Saudi Arabia and the smaller coastal states.
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Following the invasion, nearly 4,00,000 Kuwaitis including the Royal Family had fled and sought refuge in Saudi Arabia. Saudi territory too was violated by the Iraqi Army in the 1991 Gulf War and eventually subsumed all the GCC countries. Saudi Arabia is, therefore, the pivot upon which the security of the GCC countries swivels.That Saudi Arabia has not been able to ideologically, financially and militarily de-fang the terrorist groups is evident from the vicious killings of westerners engaged in various pursuits.Until Iraq militarily threatened Saudi Arabia on its northeastern border after the occupation of Kuwait, the country had experienced very few direct threats to its territory. The only overtly hostile actions were from Yemen based Egyptian air and naval units in 1963; the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) forces that attacked Saudi border posts in 1969 and 1973; and Iranian attacks on shipping in the 1980s. During the Cold War, Saudi security concerns were cantered on communist influence in nearby countries like Ethiopia and PDRY (erstwhile South Yemen), which gave the Soviet Union access to naval facilities in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia interpreted the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 as a means of their establishing a staging area for future operations in the Persian Gulf.
The Iran-Iraq War, which resulted in the Tanker War in the Persian Gulf and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, compelled Saudi Arabia to re-appraise its security priorities. Consequently the kingdom realised that the most sensitive and pressing vulnerabilities were its vast geographic expanse, lengthy coastlines, and small and scattered population. These presented formidable problems for defence. Moreover, Saudi Arabia's oil wealth made it a tempting target. If Saudi Arabia were to go overboard in its espousal of the Palestinian cause or in exercise of its influential role with the OIC, OPEC or GCC, it may usher in strategic responses from quarters that have vital security and energy stakes in the region. It is quite possible that this factor may have lent its weight in deciding upon 'Operation Iraqi Freedom' by the US and its allies, as Iraq with its oil wealth has the strategic potential to counterbalance Saudi Arabia.
That Saudi Arabia has not been able to ideologically, financially and militarily de-fang the terrorist groups is evident from the vicious killings of westerners engaged in various pursuits. Of the 54,000 workforce of Aramco, approximately 3,000 are westerners. On 1 May 2004, six westerners were killed at the ABB Lummus in Yanbu. The Al Qaeda had claimed responsibility for this attack. Subsequently, nearly 100 employees working on a joint Sabic / Exxon-Mobil refinery project left the country. The Yanbu attack was followed by another incident in last week of May 2004 in which 22 people (mainly foreigners) were killed in a residential compound in Khobar. During the first two weeks of June 2004, several westerners were murdered including one who was kidnapped and beheaded.
Also read: China dictates development on Indian territory
No personal rivalry or fissures within the royal family have come to the surface so far, however, schisms owing to policy differences over issues such as the: closeness of ties with the US, or the extent and role of the religious establishment, may not be completely discounted. In the Saudi Royal Family, as is the case with many other monarchies in the region, intrigues are not without precedence. In March 1975, King Faisal was assassinated by his nephew. Curiously, this incident had followed the Arab-Israel War, which had triggered a three-fold rise in world oil prices due to Saudi led Arab boycott of countries supporting Israel.Saudi Arabia strongly maintains that Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism cannot be effectively curbed unless the Palestinian issue that provides the ideological ammunition to these activities is resolved.Saudi Arabia has resolved various contentious boundary issues with most of its neighbours. In 1975, a demarcation agreement was hammered between Abu Dhabi, Oman and Saudi Arabia with regard to the Al Buryami Oasis, where the frontiers of these three states meet. The neutral zone that it shared with Iraq (7,000 sq km) and Kuwait (5,790 sq km) was equitably divided with each of these countries in 1981 and 1965 respectively. These neutral zones were created consequent to agreements between Saudi rulers and British officials in 1922 (representing Iraqi and Kuwaiti interests), with the purpose of safeguarding the water rights of the Bedouins of these countries. Saudi Arabia's relations with Yemen have been troubled in modern times. The border has witnessed periodic tribal clashes and boundary disputes.
The reunification of divided Yemen in May 1990, was a disconcerting development for Saudi Arabia as it felt that the more populous combined Yemen with leftist leanings might impact on the Islamic conservative dispensation of Saudi Arabia. Relations between the two countries worsened when Yemen came out in support of Iraq after the latter's invasion of Kuwait. In retaliation, Saudi Arabia had repatriated more than one million Yemeni workers. Long stretches of uninhabited desert, known as the 'Empty Quarter' or Rub al Khali form the disputed territory between Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
The two countries, however, signed a border agreement in June 2000, which delineated the sections of their common border, which had been in dispute since 1930. Nomadic groups on the border region with Yemen, however, continue to resist the boundary demarcation. Since the boundary demarcation with UAE has not been made public, the exact boundary alignment is still approximate. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are yet to demarcate their long-contested maritime boundary with Iran despite prolonged negotiations.
In addition to the economic impact of the 1991 Gulf War, which cost the regional countries US $ 676 billion and US $ 60 billion to Saudi Arabia alone, there were also far reaching sociological and political manifestations. There emerged a sizeable constituency within the kingdom that openly began to question the country's political and religious framework, which they considered regressive. It exposed the inherent inadequacies of the government in ensuring the sovereignty of the country, and security of its peoples, without western assistance. Moreover, it caused a polarisation between the traditionalists and modernists in a manner that was never so pronounced.
Although Saudi Arabia does not have any common border with Israel, it could well be engulfed by a war, which may involve Israel, especially over the Palestinian issue. Such threats have reared up in the past. Saudi Arabia strongly maintains that Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism cannot be effectively curbed unless the Palestinian issue that provides the ideological ammunition to these activities is resolved.
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A.H Amin
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