Defense Analyst Thinks that Raymond Davis was anti Pakistani Nuke Group Team Leader

Received via K.I Bajwa

 Davis - the answer? 

by

 Brigadier F.B. Ali

 

The episode displays a couple of oddly extreme reactions. Davis reacted very violently to being shadowed, while the US government's reaction to his arrest was equally extreme. Such behaviour can be expected if the matter involves high stakes. Nothing is of greater importance to the US (in the region) and Pakistan than the latter's nuclear weapons.

 

Linking this to TTG's insight, we could come up with the following hypothesis:

 

Davis was a member of an SMU [Special Mission Unit], based in Pakistan's vicinity, with the mission of making plans and preparations to seize Pakistan's nukes, if and when necessary. He was sent to Pakistan (with other members?) where his task was to develop intelligence, contacts and agents in furtherance of his unit's mission. The constant ISI shadowing was preventing him from carrying out his job, leading to so much frustration that he snapped when confronted with a threatening gesture by his pursuers. (Alternatively, though less likely, is that he discovered he was being tailed only after completing his mission that day, and he was so desperate that they not report where he'd been or whom he'd met, that he shot them both).

 

The US government's extreme reaction was caused by their deep concern that the ISI not find out anything about the SMU's mission and preparations from Davis. When the "diplomat" cover story combined with strong overt pressure did not lead to his quick release, they switched to the "CIA" cover story with the pressure continuing more discreetly. The cover stories were, of course, for public consumption, since the ISI knew exactly who Davis was. The ISI would love to get the information that Davis has, but he is obviously well schooled in deflecting interrogation while they are unable to use their more 'persuasive' methods. So, they have to be content with just enjoying letting the US twist in the wind for a while.

 

The main lesson that the USA should derive from this episode is perhaps this: Pakistan has so little left to lose that it has to be handled carefully; its reactions may be quite 'unpredictable' when gauged against experience gained in dealing with the usual run of client states.