New nation arrives Referendum likely to create a Southern Sudan

SIMANOWITZ Wash Times Jan 19 2011 New nation arrives Referendum likely
to create a Southern Sudan
By Stefan Simanowitz
The Washington Times
5:46 p.m., Wednesday, January 19, 2011
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jan/19/new-nation-arrives/
AP
Last Saturday evening, the weeklong referendum on self-determination
for southern Sudan ended. Polling stations closed, ballot boxes were
sealed and over the coming weeks, the vote will be tallied. The
result, which is expected in mid-February, seems certain to split
Africa's largest country and create the world's newest nation.
Despite violent clashes in the oil-rich Abyei region last week, which
reportedly left more than 30 dead, the referendum in the rest of the
country has been a resounding success. Turnouts were high with an
overwhelming number of southern Sudan's 4 million eligible voters
participating. The indefinite postponement of a referendum in Abyei
has ironically served to postpone a potentially explosive source of
conflict over oil revenues in the region.
Secession of the predominantly Christian South from the Muslim North
would take place in July. The partition would represent the final
stage of a peace process that successfully brought to an end Africa's
longest war, but as the violence in Abyei highlights, it carries with
it dangers of a return to instability. Key to averting a slide back to
civil war will be international recognition of a newly formed
"Southern Sudan," not just by the United Nations and global powers,
but crucially from the African Union (AU). But with respect for
colonial borders being one of the AU's founding principles and fear
among many African leaders that southern Sudanese independence could
encourage other secessions across the continent, the AU's position on
recognition is far from clear.
In October, Muammar Gadhafi warned that the situation in Sudan "could
become a contagious disease that affects the whole of Africa." His
concerns are keenly felt in countries such as Senegal, Angola,
Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where separatist groups
are currently fighting for autonomy, but they also resonate across a
continent where capricious colonial borders have divided tribes and
clans for generations. While the AU's predecessor, the Organization of
African Unity, reluctantly recognized Eritrea after it broke away from
Ethiopia in 1993, the AU have not changed its position. Indeed they
AU's position has been a key obstacle to Somaliland's bid for
international recognition since declaring independence from Somalia in
1991.
The African continent has grounds to be cautious. Recent experience in
Europe suggests that a precedent set by one nation can embolden
others. Indeed, Kosovo's 2008 declaration of independence without
agreement from Serbia or the United Nations may well have prompted
South Ossetia and Abkhazia to break away from Georgia later that same
year. The wider international community has also traditionally been
reluctant to allow new nations to join its exclusive club. Although it
should be noted that 30 new countries have been internationally
recognized since 1990, most of them emerging from the dissolution of
the USSR and Yugoslavia.
However, despite these concerns, international recognition would give
the war-ravaged new state of Southern Sudan legitimacy, which, in
turn, increases its chance of achieving security and stability. It
would also allow the new nation access to bilateral aid and trade
opportunities and a voice on the international political and
diplomatic stage.
Southern Sudan's chances of gaining international recognition are
boosted by the fact that the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA),
which brought Sudan's second civil war to an end in 2005, had
tremendous political investment from the international community. The
AU is a signatory and guarantor of the CPA, under whose terms last
week's referendum on self-determination was guaranteed. America also
played an important role in negotiating the CPA, and Secretary of
State Hillary Rodham Clinton recently spoke in favor of independence
for the would-be new nation. It is expected that the United States
will be among the first nations to recognize Southern Sudan. Less
clear is the position of China, a key investor in Sudan and a strong
ally of Sudanese President Omar Bashir.
Ultimately, no matter how unified the position of the international
community and how much support it offers, the future of Sudan will be
determined by the Sudanese people and their leaders. Every indication
suggests that the predominantly Christian South has voted to secede
from the Muslim North. In the past, Lt. Gen. Bashir has fiercely
opposed southern independence, but has recently adopted a more
moderate tone, stating that he would respect the outcome of the
referendum. Despite these assurances, the situation remains
precarious.
One source of conflict could arise over Sudan's substantial oil
revenues. While a majority of Sudan's oil reserves will end up in the
South, processing, refining and exporting the oil will continue to be
done in the North. Much of the oil is situated in Abyei, a region on
Southern Sudan's northern border, where violence erupted this week.
Abyei's participation in the referendum has been indefinitely
postponed over disputes about voter eligibility.
General Secretary of the African Union Jean Ping acknowledged recently
that the referendum will have repercussions for the entire African
continent. "Sudan is a crossroads, a point of convergence between
East, West and North Africa, as well as between Muslims and
Christians," he said. "If the last phase of the implementation process
of the CPA is peaceful, orderly and credible, Sudan will serve as an
example and further proof that Africa is capable of finding effective
solutions to its problems."
Voters in the territory have almost certainly opted for independence
and the formation of a 54th African state. The international community
should act swiftly to offer international recognition. Doing so would
provide the newborn state of Southern Sudan with the legitimacy it
will need as it takes its first shaky steps toward creating a stable,
secure democracy in one of the poorest and most volatile places on
Earth.
Stefan Simanowitz is a journalist, writer and broadcaster.