Major Agha H Amin (Retired)
24/10/10
This brief paper is a hypothetical visualization of various strategic,operational and tactical possibilities in the Af Pak Region .
Broad Strategic Scenario
BROAD ORIENTATION OF TALIBAN GROUPS
A MORE DETAILED DIVISION OF TALIBAN AND US POSSIBLE STRATEGY
US Strategy appears to be neutralization and annihilation of the more radical Haqqani Company for strategic operational and face saving and a possible compromise with the less radical Mulla Omar and Hikmatyar Companies.
Another major objective is to drive a wedge in between Pakistani state and Haqqani and Company by focing Pakistan to take military action against Haqqani.
General Hameed Gul in various interviews recently has presented a twin power failure theory spread over 2 to five years :---
1. Failure and withdrawal of US from Afghanistan.
2. Islamists concentrate on Kashmir together with Chinese assistance and Indian withdrawal from Kashmir.
3. Maoists start a grand offensive with Chinese and Pakistani support and India is weakened and destabilized.
4. Islamists expand into Central Asia and Middle East.
5. General Gul also warned Islamists against any confrontation with China.
6. On the other hand US covert policy seems to be to provoke a major Islamist Insurrection in China which Gul says should be avoided at all costs.
US Options
1. Withdraw from Afghanistan without any major strategic denuclearizing of Pakistan and avoid a nuclear conflict which is likely if an attempt is made to denuclearize Pakistan with Indian assistance.Will straight lead to realization of Hameed Gul Theory.
2. There is a possibility that US unilateral withdrawal can lead to another war of interventions in Afghanistan with Russia and Iran in the lead:--
3. Retain partial presence in Afghanistan and partition it .A least risk and pragmatic approach strategically balanced and entirely feasible.
4. Launch an attack in Iran and expand the war . May be beyond US potential if not materially then at least in terms of resolution.A US state department official Doug Scherer termed US leadership as irresolute in case of Iran.
5. Denuclearise Pakistan , Balkanise the region , keep a permanent force in Af Pak .A dangerous possibility which can lead to a major conflict possibly nuclear with China stepping in.
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