WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE USA WITHDRAWS FROM AFGHANISTAN-AGHA H AMIN

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE USA WITHDRAWS FROM AFGHANISTAN
A HYPOTHETICAL STUDY


By


Major Agha H Amin (Retired)


06 November 2010




POSSIBILITY ALPHA


1. The US/NATO/CIS/International Community retain a buffer peace keeping zone in Kabul Torkham Corridor.
2. This would act as a damper for Taliban and enable US/NATO/International forces to act as a strategic fire brigade in case of any major upset in Afghanistan.
3. A Russian/CIS force acts as peace keeping force in North Afghanistan in cooperation with Northern Alliance which enjoys support of majority of North Afghanistan population.
4. An Iranian peace keeping force in west Afghanistan.
5. A most balanced and rational solution
6.The only weak link is will the Taliban respect the arrangement ? No because they only fear Allah and have some respect for the B 52 !

POSIBILITY BRAVO


1. US Withdrawal while retaining the Kabul Torkham Corridor and a free for all international intervention.
2. The US/NATO lets the events take their own course with no formal agreement with regional parties.
3. India escalates against Pakistan to reduce pressure on Northern Alliance.

POSSIBILITY CHARLIE


1. THE US/NATO WITHDRAW TOTALLY NOT RETAINING ANY PRESENCE WHILE RUSSIA/CIS/IRAN/INDIA INTERVENE.
2. TALIBAN WILL OCCUPY GREATER PART OF AFGHANISTAN THAN POSSIBILITY ALPHA OR CHARLIE BUT CIVIL WAR CONTINUES.
3. INDIA ESCALATES AGAINST PAKISTAN TO SUPPORT NORTHERN ALLIANCE .

POSSIBILITY DELTA


1. THE US/NATO TOTALLY WITHDRAWS WHILE ONLY RUSSIA/CIS/INDIA INTERVENE.
2. TALIBAN OCCUPY GREATER AREA THAN POSSIBILITY ALPHA BRAVO AND CHARLIE BUT THE CIVIL WAR CONTINUES.
3. INDIA PAKISTAN CONFLICT WILL ESCALATE AS AN INDIAN RESPONSE TO REDRESS THE BALANCE IN AFGHANISTAN BY ESCALATING AGAINST PAKISTAN.
4. A CONVENTIONAL INDO PAK WAR STARTS INVOLVING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.