COMMENTS ON BORCHGRAVES ARTICLE BY MAJOR AGHA H AMIN (RET) IN ITALICS
DE BORCHGRAVEWash Times Dec 14 2010 Vietnam syndrome Obama must negotiate in order to avoid a similar outcome
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The Washington Times
6:03 p.m., Tuesday, December 14, 2010
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/dec/14/vietnam-syndrome/
Gen. David H. Petraeus, the U.S. and NATO supremo in Afghanistan, is as well-versed in the history of major post-world-war insurgencies as anyone alive today. From Lawrence of Arabia to Mao's and Tito's guerrilla triumphs to France's 16 years of defeats in Indochina and Algeria, Gen. Petraeus knows it all - and then some.
Australia's world-famous guerrilla warfare expert, Col. David Kilcullen ("The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One" and "Twenty-eight Articles: Fundamentals of Company-Level Insurgency") has been by Gen. Petraeus' side or on direct dial for almost 10 years.
As the senior COIN (Counter-Insurgency) adviser to Gen. Petraeus, Col. Kilcullen made clear in many think-tank talks that he was against the invasion of Iraq from the get-go but stayed by the general's side throughout his successful prosecution of the insurgencies that followed. Gen. Petraeus was promoted to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commander in Oct. 2008.
Eighteen months later, he stepped down from CENTCOM to take over the Afghan war command, replacing the cashiered Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal. There, too, Col. Kilcullen thought the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan was a mistake. It was, he said at the time "tailor-made" for Special Forces to hunt down Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda camps, separating them from Taliban. He also remembered that Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, in his first and only interview with this reporter and United Press International's South Asia consultant Ammar Turabi, three months before Sept. 11, 2001, was already highly critical of Osama bin Laden.
MULLA OMAR ALL ALONG HAS BEEN A PAKISTANI PROXY AND NOT AN OSAMA BIN LADEN MAN . HOWEVER BORCHGRAVES LOGIC IS WRONG THAT USA OCCUPIED AFGHANISTAN ONLY TO HUNT OBL.THE 9/11 WAS AN HISTORICAL EVENT WHILE US OCCUPATION OF AFGHANISTAN WAS A US STRATEGIC RESPONSE TO DOMINATE WEST AND CENTRAL ASIA.THE US WAR IN AFGHANISTAN AS FAR AS I HAVE STUDIED IT WAS LITTLE ABOUT OSAMA BIN LADEN AND MORE ABOUT CREATING A STRATEGIC REDOUBT IN THE REGION.
THIS CAN BE DONE BY THE US BY JUST RETAINING KABUL PARWAN NINGRAHAR AND LAGHMAN PROVINCES AS A STRATEGIC DAMPER WHILE WITHDRAWING FROM SOUTH AFGHANISTAN ALLOWING A TALIBAN STATE AND ASSISTING THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE IN CREATING A NORTH AFGHAN INDEPENDENT STATE.THIS WOULD REDUCE US FINANCIAL EXPENSES BY ONE TENTH AND REMOVE THE VAST US TROOP CONCENTRATION IN SOUTH AFGHANISTAN WHICH IS JUST DOING SENTRY DUTY AND HAS NO STRATEGIC OR EVEN MUCH OPERATIONAL IMPACT ON THE WAR.
Mr. Turabi has received a message from Mullah Omar that he now favors direct negotiations with the United States.
Col. Kilcullen said at the time, "You don't invade countries in pursuit of a few Islamic terrorists and turn the whole population against you." Afghans know only one thing about their history: Sooner or later, the bloodied and dispirited foreigner leaves; even the mighty Soviet empire left on Feb. 15, 1989 - and the Berlin Wall fell nine months later.
THE COLLAPSE OF USSR OR THE FALLING OF BERLIN WALL HAD LITTLE TO DO WITH AFGHANISTAN.IT HAD A FAR DEEPER CONNECTION WITH USSRS INTERNAL DYNAMICS BASED ON A BADLY MANAGED ECONOMY AND MISMANAGEMENT.SO HERE BORCHGRAVES ANALOGY IS FALLACIOUS.
Afghan "freedom fighters," armed and funded by the United States, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, brought half a century of Cold War to an end.
This time, Gen. Petraeus thinks the 100,000 U.S. troops and 9,000 Brits - the only ones out of 44 nations doing any fighting - are "drawing strength from the enemy's weaknesses." The Taliban has limited mobility; the allies, unlimited. But in Afghanistan, asymmetrical warfare is action the enemy launches and that NATO cannot or will not take. Punishing a village by firing squad for collaboration with the enemy is an effective Taliban weapon, much as it was for the Viet Cong in Vietnam 40 years ago.
While Gen. Petraeus' officers in the field and his military and civilian chiefs in Washington understand that it is Afghanistan's war to be fought by Afghan soldiers, the sad truth is that their army is still years away from being able to conduct its own operations. The head of the Afghan army says the army will require U.S. and NATO budgetary and supply support for another "nine to 10" years before they can hack it on their own. The Afghan army is slated to grow from 93,000 to 134,000 by 2011. The next troop target is 325,000, which would entail a budget of almost $1 billion.
The Afghan war effort as a whole is running at $150 billion a year. Cost estimates through 2014 range up to half a trillion dollars. How long will Congress be willing to sustain an increasingly unpopular war?
STATING THAT USA SHOULD JUST NEGOTIATE WITH TALIBAN AND LEAVE IS OVERSIMPLISTIC AND MYOPIC.WHAT ABOUT AFGHANISTANS 50 % POPULATION WHICH IS AGAINST TALIBAN AND WHO TALIBAN REGARD AS SUB HUMANS BECAUSE THEY ARE NON PASHTUN.IF THE USA HAS TO QUIT IT SHOULD BE DIVIDE AND QUIT RATHER THAN JUST QUIT .
When the last U.S. troops pulled out of Vietnam on March 29, 1973, the South Vietnamese army, far more sophisticated and battle-hardened than the Afghans, fought on alone with U.S. military aid, with distinction. Then, in late 1974, the U.S. Congress, in its infinite wisdom, severed all further military assistance to South Vietnam.
THE AFGHAN NATIONAL ARMY IS FAR POORLY TRAINED AND LED THAN THE SOUTH VIETNAMESE ARMY SO HERE A TOTAL US WITHDRAWAL MAY LEAD TO ITS QUICK COLLAPSE BECAUSE THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE CANNOT BE EFFECTIVE WITHOUT FOREIGN SUPPORT.EVEN THE TALIBAN BORCHGRAVE ADMITS HAVE PAKISTANI SUPPORT.
Last weekend, prominent academics, writers and members of nongovernmental organizations signed a joint letter addressed to President Obama that called for a major change in U.S. strategy. Among the 23 signatories, all Afghan experts, are Scott Atran, anthropologist at the University of Michigan and author of "Talking to the Enemy"; Rupert Talbot Chetwynd, author of "Yesterday's Enemy: Freedom Fighters or Terrorists?"; Gilles Dorronsoro, a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment and author of "Revolution Unending"; and David B. Edwards, Williams College anthropologist, author of "Before Taliban: Genealogies of the Afghan Jihad."
The joint letter to Mr. Obama made these key points:
c The cost of the war is now more than $120 billion per year for the U.S. alone. This is unsustainable in the long run. The situation on the ground is much worse than a year ago because the Taliban insurgency has made progress across the country.
c With Pakistan's active support for the Taliban, it is not realistic to bet on a military solution. The military campaign is suppressing, locally and temporarily, the symptoms of the disease, but it fails to offer a cure.
NO WAR HAS A MILITARY SOLUTION BUT HAS THE USA ATTEMPTED A POLITICAL SOLUTION.WHY CANNOT AFGHANISTAN BE DIVIDED IN THREE PARTS I.E A NORTHERN ALLIANCE AFGHANISTAN IN THE NORTH , A BALOCH AUTONOMOUS REGION IN THE WEST AND A TALIBAN PASHTUN STATE IN THE SOUTH ?
HOW HAS MR BORCHGRAVE SUDDENLY AND GENEROUSLY DECIDED TO SURRENDER 1OO % OF AFGHANISTAN TO TALIBAN WHO PRESENTLY CONTROL SOME 50 % OF AFGHANISTAN.HAS BORCHGRAVE NEVER VISITED NORTH AFGHANISTAN AND DOES HE NOT KNOW THAT NO ONE IN NORTH AFGHANISTAN WANTS THE TALIBAN !
c It is time to implement an alternative strategy that would enable the United States to exit Afghanistan while safeguarding its legitimate security interests. The Taliban's leadership has indicated its willingness to negotiate, and it is in our interests to talk to them.BORCHGRAVE SEEMS TO BE A GREAT FRIEND OF TALIBAN BUT HE FORGETS ABOUT SOME 50 % OF AFGHANISTAN WHO IS ANTI TALIB ? HOW CONVENIENT ! IF THE USA ABANDONS THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE THE RUSSIANS, IRANIANS AND INDIANS WILL JUMP IN AND THE CIVIL WAR WILL CONTINUE , WITH USA LOSING ALL GOOD WILL IN NORTH AFGHANISTAN THAT IT HAD CREATED SINCE 9/11.
c We ask you to sanction and support a direct dialogue and negotiation with the Afghan Taliban leadership residing in Pakistan.
AFGHANISTAN IS DIFFERENT FROM NORTH VIETNAM IN THE SENSE THAT THE TALIBAN ARE AN ETHNIC MOVEMENT WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF AFGHANISTANS NON PASHTUN POPULATION AND SOME PASHTUNS SOME 50 % OF AFGHANISTANS POPULATION ARE DEADLY ANTI TALIBAN , AND AS INTENSELY AS TALIBANS REGARD THEM AS SUB HUMANS !
Lawrence of Arabia's "Seven Pillars of Wisdom," studied by Gen. Petraeus, doesn't appear to add much to his quiver. Clearly, his confidence is not shared by experts with long experience in Afghanistan.Arnaud de Borchgrave is editor-at-large of The Washington Times and of United Press International.
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