FROM MR RAMTANU MAITRA VIA HIS FRIEND MR J.J STEINBERG
Since Dec. 1, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay have all recognized the existence of a sovereign Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, prompting a flip out reaction from the Israeli government, claiming that the ONLY pathway to a Palestinian state is through the direct negotiations with Israel. I asked two sources about this last night, and got the following.
One noted that he was hearing reports that Abbas was about to dismantle both the Palestinian Authority and the Palestinian Security Force, in response to continued Israeli intransigence.
These actions may have convinced him to wait on that, and let this latest diplomatic intervention play out. Not certain how reliable that report is, but at the Middle East Institute event, Saed Erekat made clear that time was running out, and that the PA was considering both a direct approach to the UN Security Council for recognition as a state, with UN full membership, or some other unspecified dramatic action...
Second source indicated that it was a good move by the three South American nations, because it will put heightened pressure on the Europeans and on the United States. He said the traditional diplomatic approach--ie. US mediated talks between Israel and the PA--has failed, and cannot be revived, but there are alternative approaches being mulled over right now in Washington. This pressure move can be helpful. He attributed these moves to the fact that there is growing sympathy for the plight of the Palestinians, especially since the 2008 Gaza invasion and the later flotilla incident, as well as the intransigence of Israel.
Second source indicated that it was a good move by the three South American nations, because it will put heightened pressure on the Europeans and on the United States. He said the traditional diplomatic approach--ie. US mediated talks between Israel and the PA--has failed, and cannot be revived, but there are alternative approaches being mulled over right now in Washington. This pressure move can be helpful. He attributed these moves to the fact that there is growing sympathy for the plight of the Palestinians, especially since the 2008 Gaza invasion and the later flotilla incident, as well as the intransigence of Israel.
Lieberman in the government is a point of no return for many governments, who see Israel as totally intransigent. They are right. Furthermore, since the Cold War ended 20 years ago, Israel's strategic importance is greatly diminished. Tony Cordesman's question: Is Israel a strategic liability? is gaining more and more traction, even among people who were formerly inclined to give Israel the benefit of the doubt on everything.
I will pursue this further, but wanted to see if there are any other readings on whether this is a significant move or an also-ran.
Jeff
I will pursue this further, but wanted to see if there are any other readings on whether this is a significant move or an also-ran.
Jeff
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