Provocations | The Pakistan Conundrum
Provocations
China's rise...Iran's militarization...Climate Coalitions...and much more
Coping with a Conflicted China
David Shambaugh
China's increasingly tough and truculent posture is, in part, the product of an ongoing intensive internal debate. China remains a deeply conflicted rising power, and understanding its series of competing international identities is crucial to anticipating Beijing's behavior on the world stage. [excerpt]
The Emergent Security Threats Reshaping China's Rise
Ely Ratner
Divining Beijing's "strategic intentions" offers only limited insight into how China will ultimately pursue its interests and exert global influence. Instead, its rapidly evolving threat environment will play a decisive role in the likely trajectories of China's rise. [excerpt]
The Militarization of Post-Khomeini Iran: Praetorianism 2.0
Elliot Hen-Tov and Nathan Gonzalez
The June 12 election fiasco was not a struggle for power, but a de facto coup by the emerging militant class against the clerical oligarchy, creating what might be called a modern "praetorian" state. Ironically, such an Iran could actually be stable, and easier to deal with. [excerpt]
India's Relations with Iran: Much Ado about Nothing
Harsh V. Pant
The U.S. obsession with India's ties to Iran is just that: an obsession. New Delhi's halting attempts to improve its relations with Tehran are a small piece of a much larger strategic puzzle as India also seeks to develop its relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and throughout the region. [excerpt]
Is China Playing a Dual Game in Iran?
John W. Garver
The evidence is ambiguous, but suggests that Beijing is playing a dual game with Tehran: seeking to convince U.S. leaders that China is a willing and responsible partner in maintaining the NPT regime, but helping Iran win time, international space, and continuing economic wherewithal. [excerpt]
A Climate Coalition of the Willing
Thomas Hale
Multilateral efforts to limit climate change have all but failed. But a coalition of willing countries, regions, provinces, states, cities, towns, agencies, and private actors can make second-best, but still worthwhile, progress. [excerpt]
Turkey's Eurasian Agenda
F. Stephen Larrabee
While its increasing initiatives with Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia are not anti-Western, an economically vibrant and politically self-confident Ankara is clearly not going to play the role of junior partner anymore when U.S. policy conflicts with its own regional and national interests. [excerpt]
The Pakistan Conundrum
If Pakistan holds the key to stability in South Asia, what is Islamabad doing to fight extremism? What should Washington do toward Islamabad and in Afghanistan?
Plan A-Minus for Afghanistan
Michael O'Hanlon and Bruce Riedel
The administration's plan—a counterinsurgency strategy—has a good chance to succeed in Afghanistan. But if it fails, rather than a widely-proposed counterterrorism-plus strategy, a better alternative strategy would focus on a smaller number of key districts while standing up the Afghan army and police. [excerpt]
Caught in the Muddle: America's Pakistan Strategy
Paul Staniland
The United States needs to strategically retrench in Pakistan: to step back from goals of reforming Pakistani society and forging regional harmony, limit U.S. commitments to bring them into line with limited capabilities, and seek strategic room to maneuver on three key issues. [excerpt]
Pakistan's Counterterrorism Strategy: Separating Friends from Enemies
Ayesha Siddiqa
The primary flaw of Pakistan's counterterrorism policy is that it is driven by the military. It is easier for Islamabad to use the military option than to address the problem of changing the basic narrative and socioeconomic conditions that drive militancy in the first place. [excerpt]
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"It is apparent that China is unprepared for its new international status, and the rapidity of its rise has come much more quickly than anticipated. For Chinese, it is quite jarring to be confronted all of a sudden with a whole new set of questions…about China's international status."
-David Shambaugh [more]
"[T]he new Iran presents both immense challenges and new opportunities: it will further erode the civil liberties of the Iranian people, but in the long term, may very well prove to be more united, and therefore more manageable, for U.S. foreign policymakers."
-Elliot Hen-Tov and Nathan Gonzalez [more]
"By bounding the future options for Afghanistan within the current strategy of comprehensive counterinsurgency and an alternative focusing…on the Afghan security forces, the United States can improve the odds of achieving at least a minimally acceptable outcome in Afghanistan."
-Michael O'Hanlon and Bruce Riedel [more]
"The United States needs to step back from goals of reforming Pakistani society and forging regional harmony to instead seek strategic room to maneuver on a few key issues. …The United States can achieve core goals with a mix of containment, diplomacy, and aid."
-Paul Staniland [more]
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