December 17, 2010
This is part I for those interested in more details. It was written in 2006 and some information may be outdated.
Regards,
Hamid
Skippers in the Storm – Saudi Royal Family
Hamid Hussain
'The world is going through obscure times in which the vision is unclear. The Kingdom acts cautiously in such atmospheres'. King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, August 2006
Saudi Arabia is undergoing subtle but significant changes. Social, religious, political and economic forces are engaged in the ongoing debate about the destiny of the country. The ruling house of al-Saud is caught in a very difficult situation and its leaders are struggling to steer their country towards a new course.
The role of royal family in country's affairs is a complex one. Overlapping relations among family members and delicate balance between royal family and country's other groups are at play at any given time. Royal family has successfully weathered many storms which is partly due to sophisticated working relations in the family. Despite many differences, royal family has been able to confront many difficult issues facing their country in the last seventy years.
Current system of governance of the country is based on accession to throne of one of the sons of the founder of the country Abdul Aziz bin Abdur Rahman al-Saud. King then appoints a Crown Prince and rules by royal decrees. He works with other family members' especially senior princes, Council of Ministers (most of whom are also royal family members) and Council of Senior Clerics in running day to day affairs of the country. There is a fair amount of competition among all these groups about various issues and King have to carefully balance his act to avoid open conflict. Dramatic changes in domestic, regional and international order are forcing royal family to adjust to changed realities.
The Family Affair
Currently, 23 sons of the country's founder Abdul Aziz are alive. These sons and their progeny control different segments of the society. King Abdullah's mother was from Shammar tribe (Al Fadha bint Asi al-Shuraim al-Shammar). Abdullah has been serving as commander of Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG) since 1962. In many Arab countries, army officers have overthrown their governments and this lesson is not lost on Saudi Royal family. Fearing a coup from a robust and professional armed force, a countervailing force for internal security was considered essential. SANG was formed with this objective. SANG recruits are primarily from tribes and any one who controls SANG is usually a major stake holder and Abdullah has been in charge of this important power center for a long period of time. Abdullah's son Mitib is Assistant Commander of SANG for military affairs. His two other sons Faisal and Abdul Aziz serve in their father's court as advisors. Abdullah's inner circle includes several of his half brothers. To balance the powerful Sudeiri Seven (seven sons of Abdul Aziz from his favorite wife Hassa bint Ahmad al-Sudeiri who are in control of major segments of the society. King Fahd died in 2005 and now six are left), Abdullah has developed close working relations with Badr, Abdul-Illah and Abdul Majid (The mother of these three Haya bint Saad was also from powerful Sudeiri tribe). Badr is assistant to Deputy Commander of SANG Turki bin Abdul Aziz; Abdul-Illah is governor of al-Jauf while Abdul Majid is governor of Jizan. Several other half brothers of Abdullah also control important levers of power. Bandar bin Abdul Aziz is Deputy Commander of SANG and Mitib bin Abdul Aziz is commander of SANG training college, National Guard Military College. Abdullah also appointed his half-brother Nawwaf bin Abdul Aziz as head of Saudi General Intelligence Directorate, Mukhabaraat. Nawaf's son Muhammad was appointed kingdom's ambassador to London (he had earlier served as ambassador to Italy) in December 2005.
An important power center in the country is six brothers from Abdul Aziz's favorite wife Hassa bint Ahmad al-Sudairi. Late King Fahd was the seventh brother (the seven brothers from the same mother were known as Sudeiri Seven). A careful look at the positions of these brothers and their progeny gives an insight into the dynamics of power in the Kingdom. Each prince has his own sphere of influence and controls a patronage network. This in turn attracts their partisans. A particular ministry or special area becomes the fiefdom of a prince, his progeny and sympathizers. Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz is Minister of Defense and Aviation. His sons hold some key positions in different sectors. The most famous son is Bandar who served as ambassador to Washington for over two decades. He is now Secretary General of National Security Council. Khalid is Assistant Minister of Defense, Faisal is Deputy Minister in Planning ministry, Turki is Deputy Minister in Information Ministry and Fahd is Governor of Tabuk. Abdul Rahman bin Abdul Aziz is close to his brother Sultan and has been his Deputy Minister of Defense for a long time. Nayef bin Abdul Aziz is Minister of Interior. His son Muhammad is Assistant Minister of Interior for Security Affairs. Nayef's brother Ahmad is Vice Minister of interior and Ahmad's son Nayef holds a key position in army's Special Forces branch. His other son Saud is ambassador to Spain. Salman bin Abdul Aziz is Governor of Riyadh province and his influence is in business and media. Salman's half brother Sattam bin Abdul Aziz is his deputy. Salman's sons control different business and media interests. Abdul Aziz is Deputy Minister of Oil, Faisal owns Sharq-al-Awst newspaper, Sultan is head of tourism commission and Fahd is a businessman. Another powerful group is three sons of late King Faisal bin Abdul Aziz (Saud and Turki from Faisal's favorite wife Iffat and Khalid from Haya). Saud has been serving as country's Foreign Minister for over three decades. Turki served as head of Saudi intelligence Mukhabarat for over two decades. After serving as ambassador to Britain, he is now Saudi ambassador to Washington. Khalid is governor of Asir province and has been involved in various reform projects in the country. In addition to key institutions essential for governance, numerous princes hold positions in civilian bureaucracy and benign assignments such as heads of Soccer Federation, Youth Federation, Tourism Authority and various foundations. Control of government institutions with huge bureaucracies and control of financial resources give royal family members leverage to consolidate and expand their influence at the expense of the state. Each prince expands his area of influence by providing jobs in his respective ministry or providing financial assistance and helping clients in getting their problems solved in an atmosphere of bureaucratic inertia and corruption.
Unfortunately, royal family has not been proactive about genuine reforms and transformation of the state and society. It usually acts only when threatened by internal or external forces. The very reactive nature of this decision making has not yielded the desired results. Royal family responded to previous mini-crisis with some limited changes in formal structures; however the modus operandi was bribing the opposition along with limited but stern measures of punishment. Those who chose violence were promptly sent to the chopping squares of major cities for public beheading while more benign protestors were jailed for a brief time followed by cooptation by the government. Previous disturbances such as violent protests in 1960s against girl's education and modernization control of holy mosque in Mecca in 1979 by a small extremist group and unrest in Shia dominated eastern region in 1980s were very limited in their scope and were never a real threat to the ultimate control of royal family. Domestic upheaval in the aftermath of First Gulf War in 1990 was more widespread affecting different segments of the society despite lack of a common goal or national leadership. Royal family was concerned enough with this change in mood and this prompted introduction of new measures by King Fahd in 1992. He introduced Basic Law of Governance, Majlis Shoura (Consultative Council) and formation of regional administrative regions (country is now divided into 13 regions). Royal family has embarked on a course of cautious change and some measures such as dialogue among various social groups is a positive step. King Abdullah has started a 'National Dialogue' brining various social and political groups under one roof to discuss issues. The process is slow but one has to be realistic and no one expects that a dramatic change will occur with one stroke. In October 2005, King Abdullah announced formation of National Security Council and assigned Prince Bandar Bin Sultan to run it. In October 2006, King Abdullah issued a royal decree streamlining the succession process. A committee called 'Allegiance Institution' consisting of royal family members (sons and grandsons of late King Abdul Aziz) will help streamline the process of selection of future Kings and Crown Princes. As expected the hand picked Majlis Shoura commended this new measure. Royal family has to understand the fundamental fact that current set up can not withstand pressures for change. They have the choice of being the facilitator in ushering a new phase in which the family will have some role albeit a limited one or the family will go down in a violent showdown taking with them the modern Saudi state. A violent change is likely to result in fragmentation of the state. King Abdullah has taken some significant steps towards reform; however he has to move cautiously to prevent a split in the family. This is his major handicap because if any of the family's power center decides to join one of the opposition forces, then the game will become very messy.
Al-Saud vs Others – Royal Family's interaction with other Saudi Groups
Royal family has carefully balanced various segments of society over the last several decades. In the early phase when country was still a tribal based society, founder Abdul Aziz forged relations by marrying into various tribes. Increasing modernizing brought new challenges. Tribes were linked to rulers through their recruitment in SANG. Steady income source to tribal youth through employment in SANG linked them with ruling family. In 1940s and 50s, an era when revenues from oil exports were modest, Royal family borrowed from prominent business families for state and personal expenditures. These business families were in turn rewarded with exclusive monopolies of various sectors of the economy. Now oil revenues fulfill most needs but mutually beneficial relationship between large business families and royal family is still intact. Large business families such as al-Rajhi, Jamjoon, Bin Ladin, al-Kaki etc. control a large chunk of the private sector of the economy. Country's banking, insurance, construction, real estate, hotel industry is monopolized by business families who have close financial links with royal family members.
Royal family's relations with religious establishment are unique and have seen many ups and downs. These relations go back to the original contract between puritan cleric Muhammad bin Abdul Wahhab and founder of al-Saud dynasty, Muhammad bin Saud in eighteenth century and has been maintained to the present day. Basic premise of the deal is the simple fact that clerics provide religious legitimacy to the house of Saud while in return they get to dictate the terms of the religious and social discourse of the kingdom. Clerics also enjoy all the privileges due for official positions in different segments of the society. Their role is prominent in educational and judicial branches of the government in addition to controlling most of the mosques. Royal family has used religious legitimacy for continuation of their rule. Religious establishment aligned with the royal family has provided this legitimacy; however this is not a settled issue in Islamic Jurisprudence. Royal family has cemented its relations with clerical family (called al-Shaikh) by marriage. Alliance between royal family members and clerics has been successfully used in the past to tackle tricky question of internal struggle among royal family members and external threats. In 1962, Prince Talal bin Abdul Aziz (then Finance Minister) suggested constitutional reforms, King Saud sent him to the clerics who informed him that country was ruled by Sharia (Islamic Law) and there was no place for organic law in the kingdom. In 1964, forced abdication of King Saud bin Abdul Aziz was another episode of alliance between competing royal family factions and clerics. In an unprecedented meeting which was jointly headed by the oldest member of the royal family (Abdullah bin Abdur Rahman) and Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia ( Muhammad bin Ibrahim al-Shaikh), King Saud was stripped of his throne and Faisal was installed the new king. A religious decree (fatwa) was issued in this regard by clerical establishment to provide legitimacy to the process. King Faisal had special relations with religious establishment. His mother (Tarfa) was from al-Shaikh family and he has been influenced by his maternal uncle. During Faisal's rule, the role of clerics was significantly expanded in country's affairs. Country's judicial and education systems were completely handed to religious establishment during his rule. In 1980s and 90s, when Saudi Arabia was at loggerheads with revolutionary Iran, Saudi clerics provided the base for anti-Iranian and anti-Shia propaganda. Some of the most vitriolic anti-Shia literature was published and distributed by Saudi clerics all over the Muslim world during this time period.
!990s saw a major shift in the religious discourse inside the kingdom. On religious front, ruling family faced two different kinds of problems. First was dissatisfaction of the Shia citizens of the state. Official religious circles of the country have always considered Shia as either misguided Muslims or worse as apostates. State had agreed to approve all forms of discriminations under the influence of clerics. Influenced by Iranian revolution and emergence of Shia political activity in many countries, Saudi Shia asserted themselves. This led to violent clashes in eastern region where most of Saudi Shia are concentrated. In view of small numbers of Shia (5-15 percent of the country's population), this threat was marginal and rulers successfully tackled it by getting a helping hand from clerics. Shia leaders faced with threat of mass violence or forced relocation sanctioned by the country's religious circles felt that a deal with ruling family was essential for their survival as community. In October 1993, royal family cut a deal with Shia. In exchange for promising to address some Shia grievances and general amnesty, Shia activists were to dissolve their movement, stop political activities and cut all links with outside movements and countries. Rise of extremism among country's Sunni majority and recent violent attacks inside the kingdom were instrumental in bringing royal family and Shia closer. In the last three years, King Abdullah has met with several delegations of Shia community and the common threat from religious extremists is a strong factor in rapprochement between royal family and Shia. King Abdullah has also taken steps to redress some Ismaili grievances. On his recent visit to Najran, he issued an amnesty to many who have been jailed during Ismaili community's clash with security forces. He has ordered release of several prisoners and changed several death sentences to jail terms. (Country's about 100,000 Ismaili community lives in Najran bordering Yemen. In 2000, community's leader Shaikh Ahmad bin Muhammad al-Khayyat, a teacher and cleric was arrested and imprisoned. The resultant violent clashes between Ismailis and security forces resulted in fatalities. Arrest of hundreds of protestors, long jail sentences, death sentences and forced expulsion of Ismailis from Najran alienated Ismaili community).
More dangerous than Shia assertion is the emergence of a new class of 'rebel' clergy. This new breed of clerics is influenced by a number of movements and a small extremist group has increased its influence all over the country. A complex set of domestic, regional and international factors is responsible for the radicalization of the Saudi youth. This group is using religious symbols which are the core of legitimacy of the royal family. This is the group which is striking at the very foundation of the royal family's legitimacy. First Gulf War of 1991 and stationing of foreign troops on Saudi soil was the turning point for the country and this single act severely compromised the legitimacy of royal family. A small group of extremist clerics have denounced current government as 'apostate' thus permitting use of indiscriminate violence against human and economic targets. Cells of extremist groups have been active since mid 1990s. They have attacked many government targets all over the country. There have been assassination attempts on government officials especially security services. Clerical establishment is not monolithic and there are various shades of it. A newly emerging group of clerics is the one which is not part of the established clerical structure and currently not holding any significant position in the powerful state sponsored religious structure. This group is asserting itself and they are organizing themselves to renegotiate with ruling family a new contract. This group wants to give limited support to the government in confronting extremist elements but in return want to take charge of the religious establishment and also curb reformist movement. The group of conservative clerics, judges and members of academia which already hold influential positions feels threatened from proposed reforms and this group has also launched their attacks against reformists. This group fears loss of their privileged position in current system and usually accuses reformists as foreign agents who are endangering country's Islamic values by stressing human rights, women's rights and democracy. Paralleling the petitions of reforms, conservatives have also launched their own petition campaign regarding various issues. In March 2006, more than 130 doctors and clerics published a statement opposing employment of women outside their homes. Royal family is in dilemma especially referring terrorism cases to country's courts where clerics sit as judges. They are not sure how cleric judges will decide on these highly charged cases in which religion is at the center of the conflict. It is likely that royal family will also embark on the reform of the judiciary to address this very complicated and highly volatile issue. Polarization of society on some fundamental issues usually paves the way for the ultimate violent showdown between different segments of the society. If this violence is sanctioned by religion then usually the conflict is extremely brutal, trickles down to all segments of the society and very difficult to handle. Case of neighboring Iraq is a good example and a stark reminder to anyone who wishes to avoid such upheaval in his own country.
Turbulent Tides – Future of Royal Family's Role
'In a western democracy, you lose touch with your people, you lose elections; in a monarchy, you lose your head'. Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, Secretary General National Security Council
Several segments of Saudi society yearning for a change have adopted the path of petitions and gentle prodding of the royal family to move towards reforms. A small extremist group has chosen the path of violence to force change. Currently, this group is not powerful enough to topple the royal family but it surely has the capability for spectacular acts of violence shaking the confidence of Saudi citizens and international players. Ideologically, they can shake the very foundations of the Saudi state thus setting the stage for gradual fragmentation. Royal family can count on the support from a large segment of the society when tackling the 'kamikaze' groups. However, in return they have to loose grip on reins of absolute power and give some share to ordinary citizens in decision making process. This road is a difficult one with possibility of serious conflict of interest among members of royal family and various groups of the country.
Royal family has adopted a multipronged approach to tackle a number of very complex issues. Among royal family members despite many differences, there is consensus on the issue of control of levers of power. After putting the royal house behind its general plan, King Abdullah has embarked on a path to satisfy a number of constituencies of the country. Traditional religious establishment is given the task to corner extremist elements ideologically and stem the tide of extremism emanating from the doctrines of 'takfir' (declaring a differing view as an act of apostasy) and 'al waala wal baara' (absolute loyalty to Muslims and complete avoidance of non-Muslims in all spheres). It is logical that clerics aligned with ruling family will provide religious legitimacy and confront extremists only on the condition that their own role is strengthened in the country. This will make any constitutional changes, civil liberties and removal of restrictions on females very difficult. Royal family has also extended the hand of cooperation to minorities especially Shia. King Abdullah has met with Shia leaders of the country several times and has promised to ease some restrictions on their community. Sectarian tensions are already on the rise in the context of Iraq and it is likely that extremist Saudi groups will ratchet up their fulminations against Shia. It is likely that these groups will lump their campaign against royal family and Shia in one package. State security apparatus is being overhauled to meet the coming challenges. Violence in neighboring Iraq with strong sectarian currents is a major threat to Saudi Arabia's stability. Border security is being enhanced by construction of a border fence, deployment of more manpower and use of sophisticated electronic surveillance equipment. Recently, Director General of Saudi Border Guard, General Talal Anqawi announced that infiltration across Saudi-Iraqi border is dropped 40 percent due to increased vigilance. Iraq is rapidly fragmenting and there is very slim chance that the country will remain a viable unitary state. Centrifugal forces are more powerful today than ever before and chaos in Iraq will invariably affect neighboring countries including Saudi Arabia.
The major threat is potential large scale violence from extremist groups; therefore main security focus is on these groups. Internal control will be the dominant theme in near future while the battle lines are being drawn between various groups of the society. Government is streamlining internal control process by introducing new identity cards and it is likely that smart computer chips for rapid identification of citizens will be implemented. In addition, Interior Ministry has embarked on archiving the finger print records of the whole population. It is likely that SANG will be expanded with detachments stationed in all major cities to ensure internal control. SANG may also acquire its own air force to enable it to tackle more serious opposition especially sympathizers of extremists in the armed forces. The most difficult task for royal family will be to separate rising extremist trends from domestic political issues. In this effort they will need genuine participation of the civil society at large to avoid large scale violence. In return, royal family has to open the political and economic corridors of power for ordinary citizens. King Abdullah has embarked on the reform project but the political component is way down on the priority list. He has talked at length about education, jobs and housing opportunities, public services and poverty. He considers these issues as vital while political issues and future role of royal family is considered something as a 'minor issue'. This approach is hazardous as political reform are an integral part of the overall project. The nature and speed of such political reform and role of royal family in the future set up is open to debate and Saudi society is the one which should engage in this exercise. Any outside interference is likely to exacerbate internal tensions and increase polarization of Saudi society.
Conclusion:
'The Kingdom cannot remain frozen while the world is changing around us'. King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, April 2006
In theory, there are existing laws in the Saudi Arabia which provide a façade of some kind of checks and balance but in reality monarch has absolute authority although he works through a complex mechanism of consultations and give and take while working with members of the royal family and other groups of the society. Basic Law of Governance, Majlis Shoura, Council of Ministers and Regional Council System are operating in the country but their contribution to the stability of the state and society is not clear. Majority of Saudis regardless of their ideological or political orientation are in favor of rule of law, however the similarity ends there. There are various perspectives about what this rule of law should be based on? A number of groups advocating more role for religion in political arena are further confusing the debate. A 'fatwa war' is going on between various competing religious groups. Fatwas from traditional clerics aligned with royal family, new breed of 'ultra-conservative clerics' and 'free lancers' about political issues has opened up the debate which goes all the way back to the birth of Islam fourteen hundred years ago. The real battle will be between competing visions of various Islamist groups and royal family will be performing a very delicate balancing act. In this battle, it is likely that various members of royal family will align with different groups depending on their own inclinations or vested interest. Some senior princes are aligning themselves with clerics of various brands while others with reform elements of the society.
Saudi royal family emerged on the country's scene in very unique circumstances and have been able to survive for at least seven decades. However, Saudi state and society is very fragile. There is no national foundation for the state and in view of very shaky foundations of the legitimacy of the rulers; a serious internal or external crisis can turn the applecart upside down. If ever the opposition to the rule of al-Saud family gains momentum, it will be a fractured one consisting of sectarian, tribal or regional forces which can only fragment the society rather than uniting it. In theory this arrangement may be advantageous to rulers as a national political movement seriously threatening their rule is very unlikely but in practice if meaningful reform is not pursued then only extremists will gain momentum. Anarchy in neighboring Iraq has shocked many Arabs and those living under autocratic rule may argue that an autocratic rule is preferable to anarchy. There is an old traditional Muslim saying that 'hundred years of oppression are better than one day of anarchy'. However, this can not be solace to Saudi royal family as status quo can not be maintained indefinitely.
Everyone understands the reality and no one expects that monarchy will be transformed overnight into a republic. Each society is unique with its peculiar history, culture and evolution of its social and administrative structures and Saudi Arabia is no exception. It is up to Saudis to decide what is best for them. Even relatively new nation states have been able to overcome serious social and political problems and emerge as reasonably stable societies. A forward looking and confidant citizenry can take Saudi Arabia from the zone of ambiguity and confusion to a stable and peaceful future. Current positive currents emanating from both royal family and society should be used to prevent polarization of the society and the precious time used to build minimum consensus between competing social groups of the country. Gradual progress of various reform projects, some freedom of expression, complete rejection of violent means and an honest debate and dialogue can transform kingdom into a vibrant society which is at peace with itself and its neighbors.
Hamid Hussain
November 1, 2006
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