Dear All;
Someone sent me following and asked for my two cent worth comment. My comments in red in main text. My view is essentially of an outsider and very limited. Five years ago, after a trip to Saudi Arabia, I wrote two pieces; one dealing with power dynamics and royal family and second about reform process in the kingdom. In 2008, a very good friend and world's leading expert on Kurds asked me to do a book review of a book about Prince Bandar's life (sent separately) In 2005-06 time period, tribal factor in the context of horrendous violence in Iraq and possible spillover into neighboring countries was also the subject of many works.
For the starters, it is very important to note that good number of works about Iran and Saudi Arabia are usually colored by sectarian bias and it is hard to decipher. I'll not be surprised if some more juicy material emerges on the net after King Abdullah's 'pearls of wisdom' appeared in wikileaks. In due time, Ayatollahs will be dressed down by the other party. Tehran and Riyadh are playing the 'sectarian game' for quite a long time both in their own backyards and in far off lands. We the lesser mortals can restrict ourselves to real politic and social aspects and hope that majority of God fearing, wonderful Iranian and Saudi citizens (I had the honor to interact with few of them) can have some restraining effect on their own respective governments.
Warm Regards,
Hamid
Saudi Arabia sans King Abdullah
By Hassan Hanizadeh
Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz's deteriorating health conditions and his possible death raises questions about the fate of Saudi Arabia after the 86-year-old king's demise.
Given the uncertain future ahead of 84-year-old Saudi Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, who has kept a low profile since last year and refrained from talking to local media, the possible death of the Saudi monarch may drag highly traditional and tribal Saudi Arabia into a clan war.
As the power structure in non-democratic Saudi Arabia is based on the distribution of key posts among members of tribes close to the Al Saud royal family, King Abdullah's passing will trigger massive political chaos across the tribal nation. (Tribes are only one of many power brokers in the kingdom and their role can not be exaggerated. This is discussed in one of my pieces in detail).
Al-Shammar, Sudairy, Bani Khalid, Bani Tamim, Anza, and Al-Ajman tribes, respectively, share the most power in security, political, financial and military domains in Saudi Arabia.
The Sudairy tribe currently has the lion's share of power in religious, security and royal guard sectors. The Shammar tribe controls foreign policy and oil and the other tribes are powerful in financial and stock exchange matters. (It is oversimplification of a very complex dynamics. There are no clear boundaries of where tribal or for that matter other power holders operate in different sectors of Saudi society)
Most Wahhabis in Saudi Arabia are from the Sudairy clan which has deep ideological differences with Shammar -- a tribe closer to the Shias. (This is factually incorrect. The Wahhabi school of thought is state sponsored and majority of Saudis regardless of their tribe or clan follow this. Some Saudis may disagree with some aspects of this particular school of thought and these people also belong to different strata of society. I don't know on what basis author is assuming that Shammar is closer to Shia. The only reason I see is that author may have confused tribal dynamics of neighboring Iraq as well as reaching overarching conclusions from some minor incidents associated with particular individuals. In Iraq, a large number of Sunni tribes converted to Shiism during 18th & 19th century. Shammar branches in Iraq have some who are Shia. A Saudi human rights activist Mukhluf bin Dahham al Shammari; a Sunni but he has been advocate of rights of Saudi Shia and for that he has been imprisoned in 2007. I'm sure there are many Shammar as well as members of other tribes and other Saudi citizens who are for equal rights for all citizens and we can not draw a neat line along tribal lines on this issue. Shia factor in Saudi Arabia is also discussed in one of my pieces.)
King Abdullah's mother, Fahda, descended from the powerful Shammar tribe and was the daughter of former Shammar tribe chief, Asi Shuraim. (There is more to the story. Fahda bint Al Asi bin Shuraym was the daughter of the chief of Abda section of Shammar tribe. She was married to the Amir of Hail Muhammad bin Abdul Aziz al Rashid; a member of Al Saud's rival power Al-Rashids. Al Sauds wrested power from al Rashids. After the surrender of Hail to Al Sauds, Fahda married King Abdul Aziz. She had two sons from her previous marriage and they grew up in Abdul Aziz's house and treated same as his own children.)
Former Saudi King Abdul Aziz was married to four women from Al Shammar, which is a great advantage for the tribe. (Well King Abdul Aziz also married four women from Sudairi tribe; Hussa, Al Jawahara, Haya, Mudhi. For that matter, he married among almost every major tribe. Marriage alliance of rulers with tribes in 19th & 20th century middle east is a whole separate subject. Important thing to remember is that it is not the female of the tribe but it is the powerful sons that she can produce. Two examples will suffice. Mudhi was also from powerful Sudairi tribe but her sons were not powerful enough. On the hand, Prince Bandar bin Sultan's mother was a slave girl but from hard work, Bandar became an important member of the family. As a foot note, King Abdul Aziz's mother Sara was also from Sudairi tribe.)
The power of a Saudi clan depends on how close it is to the king and the royal family. By the same token, the Shammar tribe has been the most powerful since 2005, when King Abdullah ascended to the throne.
The Sudairy tribe, which is a rival of Al Shamamr, is close to ailing Saudi Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz. But those affiliated with the tribe fear the heir to the throne may die before coming to power.
Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz's mother, Hessa bint Ahmad Al Sudair, one of the influential wives of King Abdul Aziz and the mother of King Fahd and Princes Abd al-Rahman, Nayef, Turki, Salman, and Ahmed. (They were known as Sudairi Seven)
Former Saudi King Abdul Aziz had 32 wives from influential Saudi tribes who have given him seventy children.
The Sudairy clan cemented its pillars of power, particularly in religious centers such as those charged with promotion of virtue and prohibition of vice, after June 1982 when King Fahd, the fifth king of the Al Saud dynasty, assumed power.
Ever since, most key posts at the Ministry of Defense, Royal Guard Regiment, Saudi security apparatus, and major embassies have been assigned to those associated with the Sudairy clan. (King is only one of the powerful wheels of the machine and connection on mother side alone does not explain everything. In fact, power dynamics of each king was different. King Saud's mother was from Al-Khalid tribe, King Faisal's mother was from Abdul Wahhab's (known as Al-Shaikh) family, King Khalid's mother was from al-Jiluwi tribe & King Fahad's mother was from Sudairi tribe.)
Former Saudi King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz's death in August 2005 and his step-brother King Abdullah's rise to power prompted those affiliated with the Shammar tribe to take a giant leap toward capturing the power bases in Saudi Arabia. (Factually incorrect. Royal family has survived for over a century by carefully balancing different power centers and reliance on one would be suicidal. This aspect is discussed at length in one of my piece.)
In pre-Islam Arabia, a tribe's power and influence were measured based on the number of men as well as the number of relatives by marriage to members of other tribes.
Therefore, the Shammar and Sudairy tribes pride themselves on the fact that the former Saudi king has chosen most of his wives from these two clans.
Former Saudi Ambassador to Washington Prince Bandar bin Sultan's unexpected return to Riyadh and the sudden closure of universities across Saudi Arabia bears witness to King Abdullah's deteriorating health.
Prince Bandar, the head of the Supreme National Security Council until 2005, was the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. for twenty-two years and one of the most influential figures in the Al Saud dynasty.
Prince Bandar, whose mother was an African slave serving the Saudi royal family, has a close relationship with the Republicans in the United States. (The issue of slavery in Muslim lands is the most shameful chapter that no intellectually honest Muslim scholar either religious or secular has dared to touch. In fact, two Muslim countries never occupied by colonial powers i.e. Afghanistan & Saudi Arabia were the last countries to abolish chattel slavery and that was well at the beginning of 20th century. A whole different topic.)
During the presidency of George Bush junior and George Bush senior, Bandar managed to convince the US Congress to supply Saudi Arabia with super-modern weapons.
In effect, Bandar and the Bush family are business partners in a joint oil drilling venture in Texas worth USD 500 million.
So Bandar could play a key role in distorting the investigation into the 9/11 incident despite the fact that 17 of the 18 terrorists behind the attacks were Saudi nationals.
Bandar is said to have invested heavily in the election campaigns of George W. Bush during his two terms in office and that is why George W. Bush feels indebted to the Saudi dynasty. (Bush family has close relations with Saudi royal family but Saudi-U.S. relations are not beholden to party interests. Corruption in U.S. at corporate level is legendry and money trickles to politicians but I'm not aware of 'heavy investment' of Saudis in U.S. election campaigns. Anyway that will be akin to political suicide for any American politician. More likely path may be business favors to joint companies to help American friends.)
Shorty after the 9/11 incident, George W. Bush accused certain regional countries of training terrorists while refraining from revealing the identities and nationalities of the perpetrators of the attacks.
Given that the Saudi dynasty has well over six thousand members all of whom are assigned to key posts, the possible death of King Abdullah could result in a power struggle.
This comes as U.S. authorities, who are prepared to hear the news of King Abdullah's death have conducted intensive consultations with King Abdul Aziz's descendants.
Numerous trips to Iraq by General David Petraeus, the former commander of U.S. forces in the region, and Ryan Crocker, the former U.S. ambassador to Riyadh, and their consultations with the members of the Saudi dynasty, shows Washington's misgivings over the possible death of the Saudi monarch.
In his several meetings with top Saudi generals, Petraeus discouraged them from launching a coup should the king die. In the meantime, Crocker stressed the need to name 77-year-old Prince Nayef, Second Deputy Prime Minister and former long time Interior Minister, as King Abdullah's successor. (I don't know what the sources of this information are?)
Considering the fact that Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal has contracted Parkinson's disease, and Bandar has lymphatic cancer, the White House would rather see Nayef, the number three man in the Al Saud royal family, take the reigns of power.
The reason why Americans prefer price Nayef as the king is that he had a key role in cracking down on al-Qaeda as former Saudi King Abdul Aziz's eleventh child.
So, given the tribal structure in the Al Saud regime and the clans' desire to share power, the political vacuum resulting from the possible deaths of the Saudi king and the crown prince could trigger a political tsunami which might ripple across the whole region.
The outbreak of tribal conflicts in Saudi Arabia may divide the country into eastern and western parts between Sudairy and Shammar tribes, a phenomenon which does not sound far-fetched given the situation in Saudi Arabia, widespread corruption among King Abdul Aziz's descendants and the growing gap between the people and the ruling elite. (Quite far fetched as power dynamics are quite different. Surely, like any country, there are many fault lines in Saudi society and anything can happen. However, one factor that has far reaching effect on Saudi society is what happened in Iraq. In the aftermath of U.S. invasion, civil war and horrendous violence, Saudi Royal family was able to clearly convey the message to its own people that look this is what democracy looks likes and do you want your country to go through this? Bloodshed in Iraq had quite a sobering effect on Saudis and many who wanted a dramatic change had second thoughts. Fear of chaos and rise of extremism made many Saudis to pause and even if they didn't like current system, the fear of unknown put some breaks. After all, the famous Arab quote recited to its citizens from time immemorial is 'thousand year of tyranny is better than one day of chaos'. In the end, it is up to Saudis to decide what is best for them.)
We expect men to be wrong about the most important changes through which they live. Harold Lasswel
December 17, 2010)
No comments:
Post a Comment