Difficult Choices – Reform Process in Saudi Arabia

 

December 18, 2010

 

Dear All;

 

This is part II written in 2006.  A senior official of Saudi National Security Council at that time communicated to me that Shia population was much less than most estimates based on most recent census data.  Saudi Arabia has one of the most complete census data and now complete biometric record of all citizens.

 

Regards,

Hamid

 

Difficult Choices – Reform Process in Saudi Arabia

 

Hamid Hussain

 

Saudi Arabian state and society has seen a dramatic change in the last fifty years.  Sudden rush of oil wealth changed the social and economic face of the country dramatically in a very short period of time.  The two most sacred shrines of Islam are also located in Saudi Arabia.  Absolute rule by Royal family combined with a puritan version of religion made a very complex equation.  For several decades a delicate balance was in place among various social groups of the country.  Ruling family, clerics, business families, educated middle class and various hues of Islamists are part of the ongoing struggle for the soul of the nation.    Iraqi attack on Kuwait in 1990 and subsequent stationing of American troops on Saudi soil posed serious questions for Saudi society.  The legitimacy of ruling family was seriously undermined by this single act.  Political and religious themes are not very easily separable in many societies and in case of Saudi Arabia, where legitimacy of rulers is partly linked with religion; it was inevitable that those opposing any policy will also use religion to justify their stance and actions.  The first signs of this religio-political assertion came from a new breed of Islamists who had combined Islamist political activism with Hanbali doctrine (this is one of four accepted schools of thought among Sunnis) which is prevalent in the country.  This was not the only group wanting to change country's direction but it was the most vocal one.  In March 1991, 400 Saudis signed a 'Letter of Demands' and next year over 100 clerics submitted 'Memorandum of Advice'.  None of the groups challenged the legitimacy of royal family but only advocated certain changes in the country's policy.  For over a decade, the focus was on cultural, social and economic issues with much less emphasis on critical political issues.  Significant differences among opposition groups about ideology, methodology and course of action combined with government's attempts to selectively punish and co-opt various individuals and groups did not allow for emergence of a coherent process. 

 

Almost all groups are advocating their demands in religious terms.  However, like any political opposition, there is significant divergence of views.  Most visible opposition consists of two groups; First group only criticizes government policies in religious context while the extremist groups denounce current Saudi government as apostate and use this argument to justify violence against government officials and civilians.  In the middle is the group influenced by Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan al Muslimeen).  In 1960s and 70s exiled Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood members (in 1980s Syrian brotherhood members fleeing the onslaught of Assad's security forces also came to Saudi Arabia) found refuge in Saudi academic institutions and influenced a new Saudi generation.  Some among them are neutral on current political issues and prefer to focus on grass root education and training of cadres avoiding direct conflict.  The other group favors supporting government being fearful of anarchy in troubled times.  Holding all these groups at bay is the traditional religious establishment which has long history of solid link with ruling family and state institutions. 

 

Highly volatile internal and external issues have added to the accumulating pressures of discontent in Saudi society.  Previously, Saudi government was successful in directing the fire of Saudi extremists towards battles in far off lands.  Saudi militants fired the first volley when they turned their guns towards their own society.  The turning point for Saudi Arabia was in early 2003 when for the first time the new breed of extremists started a campaign of violence inside the country.  Royal family and Saudi society woke up to the fact that the extremist demon has arrived without a knock at the door.  On May 12, 2003 a series of suicide bombings in housing compounds in Riyadh announced the crash landing of extremist shuttle.  When the dust settled, 26 people and nine suicide bombers were dead.  In April 2005, a three day firefight with extremists in the town of al-Ras near Riyadh resulted in death of 15 extremists.  In September 2005, Saudi security forces battled for three days with militants in the eastern city of Dammam.  Initial challenge was security related therefore naturally the response was also in the security context.  Saudi security services were shocked to find large weapon and ammunition catches in several areas in central and eastern part of the country.  Over 140 people have died in attacks by extremists while security services have killed more than 100 extremists.  Several hundred Saudis have been arrested in connection with violence. 

 

Saudi government's initial response was to crack down on trouble makers.  Three prominent clerics who had issued fatwas of violence were arrested.  2,000 imams (prayer leaders) were removed from their positions and more than one thousand were sent back for re-education.  Royal family cautiously addressed various aspects of complex issues.  On the issue of extremist ideas in religious context, in late 2003 King Fahad addressed the body of clerics and asked them to look into the dangers of extremism to Muslim faith.  He also advised them to find ways to correct 'aberrant' religious decrees.  Crown Prince Abdullah urged officials and teachers of Ministry of Education to avoid promoting extremists concepts.  War in neighboring Iraq has added a very dangerous component to the conflict inside the Kingdom along with rapid escalation of sectarian tensions in the whole region.  War in Iraq is a major subject in Saudi Arabia and now directly linked to the internal crisis.   A number of Saudi suicide bombers have blown themselves up in Iraq.  A number of Saudis have been arrested on their return from Iraq.  These Saudi veterans may become the core group which can start up new cells inside the Kingdom.  There is an ongoing battle between religious leaderships of opposition groups and traditional clerics.  In the beginning, the fight against U.S. troops which was predominantly Sunni was considered legitimate but when it took an ugly sectarian turn with large scale slaughter of Shia civilians, it raised serious political and theological questions.  In November 2004, 26 Saudi clerics issued a fatwa declaring resistance activity in Iraq as Jihad with objective of removing occupation.  Mufti of Saudi Arabia, Shaikh Abdul Aziz aal-al Shaikh while acknowledging Iraqi occupation left the question of Jihad to Iraqi clerics.  Another Shaikh Abdul Mushin Al-Obikan opposed the idea of foreigners participating in fighting in Iraq on the grounds that they are involved in destruction and brining more tragedy to Iraqis.  In issuing his opinion, he is obviously disturbed by the increasing sectarian tensions in the country.  Conflicting interests have added more confusion and inner contradictions of 'free for all fatwas' are totally lost among believers. Shaikh Salman Bin Fahd al-Odeh put his signature on a communiqué of 26 religious scholars declaring that conflict in Iraq was Jihad.  When his own son Muaz left a note at home stating that he was on his way to Iraq, al-Odeh asked Saudi authorities to help him bring back his son.  Saudi security forces picked up his son in Jubbah desert.  The embarrassed Shaikh later declared that he was not in favor of encouraging young men to go to Iraq.   Most importantly, the nature of conflict in Iraq has dangerously widened the gulf between Sunni and Shia communities all over the world. 

 

In confronting extremist elements in their own society, Shaikh Abdul Muhsin al-Obikan, a Saudi scholar who is Shura member and legal advisor to Justice Ministry admitted that Saudi schools and Afghanistan conflict played a major role in the rise of extremism among youth in Saudi society.  Government handled violent extremist with sternness but at the same time pursued another avenue for those who were swayed by extremist ideology but have not yet committed violent crimes.  Saudi government started two programs for the battle of hearts and minds.  Saudi Ministry of Religious Endowment and Islamic Affairs started an online dialogue with extremists.  The two most critical issues which are at the heart of the debate are takfir (doctrine of apostasy) and al-walaa wal baara (association with believers and dissociation from unbelievers).  All extremists use these two doctrines to justify killing of civilians including Muslims.  Most Saudi extremists visit various websites and express their ideas.  A select group of Saudi religious scholars engage these individuals in a dialogue on internet and counter their arguments in religious terms.  This campaign is named al-Sakinah.  The Interior Ministry started its program of engaging militants and their sympathizers who are in various prisons.  A group of 100 clerics and senior jurists and about 30 psychiatrists and psychologists are participating in this campaign.  These programs were kept secret for about two years.  Once success was achieved with these campaigns, then Saudi government publicly acknowledged existence of these programs.  This is the right approach toward a very complex phenomenon which needs a holistic solution. 

 

The yearning for change is visible in all sectors but the most important battle will be fought between two groups.  One which wants a more stricter implementation of Sharia (religious law) under the authoritarianism of puritan clergy and the other which wants a representative government which is accountable to its citizens.  The role of religion in political arena is a complicated phenomenon and it is the single most important factor which can result in direct violent clash between contending parties.  Every genuine demand such as civil liberties, women issues and cultural norms could be denounced as 'anti-Islamic' and against Sharia.  Clerics have been active in confronting some reform measures and denouncing attempts to change existing restrictions on women and minority religious groups.  Clerics have asked for removal of Minister of Labor Ghazi al-Ghosaibi because he is working on expanding women's role in work force.  They are also opposing Minister of Information and Culture Iyad Madani's efforts to give some freedom to Saudi media and allow women to enter in this field.  Liberal mixing of religious, political, economic and social issues in the absence of a coherent thought process and organized political activism usually creates confusion and raises more questions rather than answering existing controversies.  Clerics need to make the critical distinction between their views and faith itself and accept diversity and genuine difference of opinion on religious matters.  In the absence of that they will be the catalysts for fragmentation of Saudi civil society. 

 

Strain on Saudi state and society from a number of critical problems can not be ignored anymore.  In June 2003, then Crown Prince Abdullah announced 'National Dialogue' to address key issues facing Saudi society.  In a four day conference, various recommendations were presented to Abdullah.  He also authorized Consultative Assembly (Majlis-e-Shura) to debate and discuss and propose reform ideas.  Abdullah also met with country's Shia, Sufi and Ismaili communities to bring them on board of the reform ship.  If ruling family is genuinely sincere to address all issues including political participation and loosening of grip of royal family on all instruments of power then a compromise solution can be reached.  Strengthening of state institutions with supremacy of law, opportunities for the citizens to be partners in decision making process at various levels and accountability of government creates an upright and proud citizenry which is then ready to face any challenge.  When a government oppresses its own citizens, then the citizen quietly withdraws his allegiance not only from the government but also the state.  Such states are very vulnerable to fragmentation either shattering from implosion or splintered by external pressures. 

 

In modern global world, internal and external issues are intertwined.  In case of Saudi Arabia, its reservoirs of hydrocarbons meet the requirements of an energy hungry world; therefore domestic issues can not be completely quarantined from international attention and scrutiny.  Thanks to current U.S. administration's 'strategic myopia', America has become almost a plague.  Anything which America touches becomes 'highly radioactive' thus making matters worse.  It is in the interest of all Saudi opposition groups to stay clear of American government and non-government entities.  Genuine causes of reform will surely get a mortal blow if touched by anything even remotely attached to American.  On part of Saudi government, it took the wise decision and worked quietly for complete departure of all foreign troops.  Reform in Saudi Arabia is the business of Saudi citizens only.  They have to face the issues, ponder on their dilemmas and come up with solutions.  Citizens will be suspicious of even genuine efforts of reform and improvement of civil society, if they view them as a result of external pressure.  They will view these positive changes not the need of Saudi society but to placate United States and western world.  It will be prudent, if Saudi government concentrate on its domestic reform agenda and avoid getting entangled in regional volatile issues.  No country can live in isolation, and Saudi Arabia needs to be engaged with regional countries, Europe and most importantly U.S. but engagement is quite different than active manipulation and behind the scene intrigues. 

 

Detailed analysis, rigorous exercise of frank debate between benefits and risks of any given policy and accepting plurality and diversity of its own society will serve Saudi Arabia well in charting its course ahead.  History of difficult relations of state and its religious establishment with country's minority religious groups means that both parties (Saudi government and leadership of these minority groups) will require extreme caution and prudence.  All parties have to work together to find an acceptable solution to this potentially explosive issue.  Exact figures are not valuable but most figures estimate that Saudi Arabia's population of 22 million (about 16 millions are citizens while remaining expatriate foreign workers) has about 2 million Shia (about 10-15 percent) which are mainly concentrated in eastern al-Sharaqiya region.  In addition, there are about 100,000 Ismailis living mainly in Najran province near the country's border with Yemen.  The strategic vulnerability of Saudi state is getting bogged down in the emerging sectarian war in the house of Muslims.  If Saudi Arabia gets involved in the ongoing sectarian conflict, it will surely blow back into its own territories and set aflame the strategic eastern region which has not only the country's oil reserves but also majority of its Shia.  The common threat from extremist al-Qaeda linked groups have brought Saudi ruling family and country's Shia minority together but this cautious rapprochement is not without problems.  Difficulties faced by Saudi Arabia in the context of sectarian tensions can be gauged from one example.  Recently, some concessions were made by the government to ease restrictions on Shia to express their faith.  Some Saudi clerics are already flexing their muscles to keep a tight lid on Shia demands.  Shaikh Safar al-Hawali saw easing of restrictions on Shia as favoritism and even issued a veiled threat questioning the legitimacy of ruling family that old claim of choosing the country's ruler from Quraish (a prophetic tradition suggests that imams should be from the house of Quraish) could be revived.  Another firebrand extremist cleric Abdullah bin Jibrin has issued fatwas about apostasy of Shia during recent Lebanon crisis against Hezbollah.  Saudi clerics are resisting efforts of government to include a Shia representative to sit on Council of Higher Clerics.  Saudi government is trying its best to perform the delicate balancing act of embracing its own citizens of different views while preventing the extremist backlash.  Saudi government has to work hard to give full citizenship rights to Shia while Shia leadership has to understand the volatile sectarian situation not only in Saudi Arabia but also in the whole region and work towards a gradual reform.  Shia can achieve most of their rights and maintain their identity without falling victim to sectarianism.  Their leaders have repeatedly stressed their commitment to Saudi state and have publicly offered personal oaths of loyalty to King Abdullah.  They have done this several times to prove that they are the sons of the soil and not 'other' or 'foreigner'.  The biggest challenge is for the traditional Saudi religious establishment.  Currently, dominant Hanbali doctrine needs review by clerics themselves especially in the area of declaring opposing points of view as apostasy which is invariably linked with the horrific sectarian violence.   The most destabilizing factor in the context of Iraq war which has been introduced is politicization of sectarianism which has the potential of ruining the region.  With tolerance, patience and understanding many problems can be resolved to mutual satisfaction of all parties.  If a non-violent gradual reform does not take place in the Kingdom, then there is a clear and present danger of splintering of the society. 

 

Saudi civil society is facing a gigantic task of addressing critical issues and will need instruments of patience and compromise to emerge as a vibrant, tolerant and prosperous society at peace with itself.  Internal struggle among large number of princess, restlessness of civil society, polarization of religious establishment on various lines and presence of 'loose canon' extremists has created a very volatile mix which is very difficult to handle for anyone.  Saudi Arabia is going through very difficult times and actions taken by different groups of the society and government will shape the future of the country.  It is natural that in such circumstances, fear, hesitancy and confusion creeps into the discourse.  However, a confident and proud citizenry comfortable with their faith and heritage and willing to ask difficult and painful questions can overcome many hurdles.  It is the duty of every Saudi citizen to evaluate, assess and frankly debate on all issues concerning their welfare.  The least which the government can do is to allow this activity.  Tolerance of different ideas and perspectives and respect of opinion of others and dialogue about contending issues is the essence of any civil society.  These ideas are also enshrined in the egalitarian principles of Islam.  Religion can be used to bridge the gaps and bring people together rather than using it as a divisive force.  All tools of conflict resolution including modern techniques, Islamic principles and traditional tribal reconciliation should be used to achieve the desired results.  The debate over religious, political, economic and social issues in any society can be very difficult and painful.  There is always the danger of violent conflict over opposing world views and Saudi Arabia is no exception.  The changes either positive or negative in Saudi Arabia will invariably affect the region and broadly international political and economic order. 

 

 

Hamid Hussain

October 18, 2006