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BY
A.H AMIN
JULY 2009
Camp Leatherneck is the new US imperial outpost in the so called war against terror in Afghanistan. Some experts think that Camp Leathernecks significance is strategic .This article is an analysis of the new US strategy in Afghanistan in the context of establishment of Camp Leatherneck, and its impact on the ongoing operations at the strategic, operational and tactical plane.Camp Leatherneck located near Khanishin in Helmand Province has been described by observers who visited it as following :--
concrete blast walls and semi-cylinder sand-colored tents.
Would house most of the 8000 marines being flown in to AFGHANISTAN.
443-acre secure facility.
If placed end to end in the United States, the sand walls at Leatherneck and eight other sites being built for the troop influx in southern Afghanistan would stretch for a distance of 175 km (110 miles).
The marines at Camp Leatherneck are also building a giant parking area for helicopters and airplanes by laying down a mat of metal alloy on the desert floor. With a length of 4,860 feet a width of 318 feet, the mat will be the second largest of its kind in the world and the biggest in a combat zone, said Marine Lieutenant Colonel David Jones, commander of the Marine Wing Support Squadron 371, based in Yuma, Arizona.
The camp would house the 2ND Marine Expeditionary Brigade also known as Task Force Leatherneck.This would be a force of some 11 to 13 thousan troops including support troops.Actual fighting troops keeping in view the US teeth to tail ratio that I have seen in Afghanistan may be as low as 5 thousand to 6 thousand troops.
While little information is available about ongoing operations in the area the following is an assessment based on an on ground stay in Afghanistan in the period 2004-2009.
ANALYSIS
Personal Memories
When I arrived in Afghanistan in early 2004 my first assignment was as sub contractor of a very famous US company Louis Burger.RDA whose General Manager I was , was an Afghan American NGO ,which had a contract of constructing some 5 clinics in Helmand,one being in Khanisihin which now houses Camp Leatherneck.I visited Khanishin in August 2004.
At that time it was an open drug market and there was no NATO or US forces in the area.Our movement was at the mercy of Taliban,who happened to be our sub contractors also.No American from Louis Burger visited this project at least till June 2005 when I resigned from RDA to establish my own company.
My second exposure to the area came in September 2006 when I received a frantic call from Rock Chlela a Lebanese from Pro Sima Intenational,a favourite sub contractor of US Army.Rock wanted to do an initial survey of the area from Nad I Ali to Camp Bastion and could find no Afghan or foreign sub contractor willing to do the survey.We did this short 22 km survey in two days.There were no NATO or Afghan forces in the area and I was lucky to get support of some old Afghan contacts of mine who I had helped in getting released in a drug trafficking case in Pakistani Balochistan back in 1983.These contacts for survival had now grown long beards and had become what many ,erroneously call Taliban.
Camp Bastion was a British camp established in the area.The Taliban contemptuously referred to them as contractor soldiers because of their being patrolling shy without overwhelming air support.In my survey I saw these Britishers only once and that too on the main Kandahar-Herat Road near Girishk early morning 0600 hours.Another British patrol that I met was relaxing on a ridge just next to their camp comprising of Fiji Gurkhas. (Fiji has an old Gurkha settlement).They were afraid when I approached them but became relaxed when I told them that I am a sub contractor.
The third exposure to the area was when we got a contract for a drug trafficking survey from an international client in October 2006.The fourth exposure came when we were asked by Pro Sima International to make a bid for a border police battalion headquarters at Qala I Afzal in Nimroz in February-March 2007.
My last major visit in the area was in 2007 when I had been invited by the US Army Center of Military History to a seminar in Fort Mc Nair dealing with role of non state actors in the ongoing low intensity war in Afghanistan in August 2007.My research at that time helped in understanding many more subtle aspects of the issue.
Camp Leatherneck as an operational screen
Located in south Helmand Camp Bastion is an operational screen against Taliban infiltration from Chaghai district in Pakistani Balochistan.The Taliban are strong in this area and used to commute openly during all times from all directions.Establishment of this camp with its heavy air power complement may restrict Taliban movement.
Camp Leatherneck as an anti narcotic strategic outpost
Located on the main east west drug corridor the force in the camp can effectively interdict east to west flow of narcotics.Here the Pashtun drug mafia comprising the Barakzai and Nurzai tribes generally carries the drugs till Char Burjak from where they are picked by the Baloch drug mafia comprising Rind,Sanjarani,Reki and Notezai tribes.These Baloch carry the drugs to Iranian and Pakistani Balochistan.
Camp Leatherneck as an initiative to capacity building of Afghan National Army and Afghan Border Police in the Shorawak Chaghai and Chaghai Koh I Malik Siah Corridor
Presently there is hardly any Afghan presence on the border west of Shorawak right till the Iranian border post on Koh I Malik Siah.Camp Leatherneck is a first step in the capacity building of Afghan forces in this area.However one brigade group will not be enough for a 450 km length border comprising the harshest terrain in the world.If the USA wants to do this it would require at least four similar brigade groups in the Helmand and Nimroz provinces.This is the weak link.The USA has to fight its own war.Pakistanis ,Afghans etc are not US allies but cheap US mercenaries with limited military effectiveness against the well motivated Taliban.
Camp Leatherneck as a flanking block to Taliban movement from south to north in Kandahar Province
The Taliban generally used to move at leisure from the Shorawak-Chaghai corridor to Kandahar in the north.The forces at Camp Leatherneck can attack these forces now aerially as well as with a ground component.
Camp Leatherneck as a political offensive
Camp Leatherneck may be viewed as an offensive posture by Iran vis a vis the Jundullah group that operates from Pakistani Balochistan against Iranian government in Irani Balochistan.The camp is near the dividing line of Baloch and Pashtun population from north to south and east to west.It has great potential to serve as a forward staging section for human intelligence gathering.Seen in this context the camp may be viewed with great apprehension in Iran.
Below are two maps , entirely my own imagination conceived in December 2005.When I showed them to my friend Doug Scherer ,a spirited young man serving as second secretary in US Embassy,he remarked that the State Department is so shit scared of Iran that they would have a heart attack if they see this imaginary depiction.Wet pussies he told me ,his seniors in state department were,hiding behind e mails abd taking no decisions !
Strategic Value
Helmand is the largest province of Afghanistan with an area of 59,720 square kilometer as per the Afghan Cartographic Instiute in Kabul.The southern half comprises some 30,000 square kilometers.It is doubtful if one US brigade group comprising some 5,000 to 6000 actual fighting troops can make much difference to the outcome of the war in Afghanistan.Seen in this context the camp is a puny pin prick rather a strategic thrust.A thin crow bar rather than a strategic dagger.Logistically it is difficult and expensive to maintain.Fuel supplies and logistic convoys supplying the camp would be ideal Taliban ambush targets.In the final reckoning the major gainers would be the private contractors who have constructed the camp at very high rates and private contractors who are and will supply it.To my knowledge the huge job of constructing this camp was not advertised in the US Army Corps of Engineers website.
CONCLUSION
Camp Leatherneck though pivotal in the new US strategy in Afghanistan is a significant step in the right direction.However at the strategic level its value is limited unless the broader US policy is more effective and far greater military resources are pumped in.It appears that the grand resolve to win is missing in the new US strategy.What is being done is a stop gap arrangement.This is not the way wars are fought to be won.
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WHAT SHOULD BE THE US STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN
MAJOR AGHA H AMIN (RETIRED)
AUGUST 2008
In the last seven years or so the USA at the strategic,operational and tactical level has became a laughing stock for the world.
Starting from the premise that both USA’s total failure or total success would not be good for world peace,one may state with confidence that the USA needs to seriously re-consider its strategy in both Iraq and Afghanistan and worldwide.
Absurdities surround this war which need to be addressed ? Expensive bombs,munitions, ammunition and logistics are being consumed in killing men who do not deserve so much expense, while some 75 % munitions in any case miss the intended target ? Who is benefitting from all this other than the military defence complex , US and non US military sub contractors and worst of all the vast bulk of logistics sub contractors who are actually Taliban disguised as contractors.
All expenses being paid by the US taxpayer who has nothing to gain and all the profit being made by the military industrial complex and the dirty and greedy defence contractors !
There is a a better way of dealing with Afghanistan and Iraq than spending dollars, every cent of which are a waste and to add insult to injury when the US and NATO forces withdraw one day these guys would chant ” Islam has won ” or more absurd ” Afghanistan is a graveyard of Empires” , pure and unadulterated nonsense ! They would forget the billions of US taxpayersmoney wasted in a country with near zero infra structure and all the profits that Afghan and Iraqi middle men , sub contractors made !
The gist of the problem is that USA is making all the efforts fiscal and material.Russia and China are secretly rejoicong and seeing US resources and morale being drained and soldiers dying for an ungrateful lot .
Oil rich Arab states are relaxing with Saddam eliminated and a reduced Iranian threat.
The present situation is that th USA is making the major effort while its NATO allies less Britain are just pretending that they are also pushing the bogged down vehicle. This is true for both Iraq and Afghanistan. If this continues China and Russia will have the last laugh.
Lets assume that 9/11 was the major historical development done by non US actors,whether a state actor/s or a non state actor/s, taking advantage of which the USA initiated a NEW PLAN BARBAROSSA or a NEW FINAL SOLUTION to deal with the multiple issues of energy resources, Islamic extremism and containing the rise of China and containing Russia’s reassertion and regeneration.
The US policy makers did not accurately assess the responses of their stated and non stated opponents. They failed to give due account to the important aspect that the enemy or other parties non state or state actors have an independent will.
When the USA occupied Afghanistan ,Russia brilliantly adapted.Renewing and putting extra investment in their old Parchami and Mujahid allies in Afghanistan.
Note that the Mujahids had been seriously penetrated and converted by 1985 as far as many sizeable groups were concerned. The Russians contained US influence in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and countered it in Kirgizistan with a rival Soviet base.The Iranians did not budge or blink.
US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan presented a golden target for Islamists in getting a really swift short cut to paradise. The USA did not make use of the smaller ethnicities like Baloch or Kurd.
They continued to rely on the multi ethnic larger states and were decieved and robbed of many billion US dollars.Iraq was not pacified and its situation to date is unstable and unpredictable.
Iran was strengthened in the process with a Shia regime in Iraq.Another Shia regime in Syria,unchallenged and dealt with by the USA and the Hezbollah in Lebanon.
In short the USA landed into a long term strategic stalemate.
A sitting duck target which can be attacked by guerrila forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Its a matter of time that the anti US forces acquire SAM missiles.And once this happens the USA would have to rely on greater troop levels which would be costly and financially very very draining.
In case of Pakistan the USA again failed to achieve any of its objectives.If there were any.Pakistan was not denuclearised.Its non state actors were not pacified.And above all the team which the USA had handpicked in Pakistan failed to deliver.China remains healthy and growing.
Russia is now riposting the USA in Georgia and Ukraine and covertly at many places.
In short in seven years of war and with heavy expenses the USA achieved little.
Afghanistan was not reconstructed but the seeds of its Balkanistaion firmly planted.All US money went to US contractors or smaller contractors from Turkey,Lebanon,South Korea and Afghanistan.Most of the major sub contractors were war lords or to add insult to injury Taliban linked contractors in the south.
Instead of shifting troops to Afghanistan or enlarge the war to Iran or Pakistan the USA needs to re-think its entire strategy.
Some key features of a new strategy may be :–
1-Withdraw from both Iraq and Afghanistan while retaining bases in the Gulf/Pakistan/Saudi Arabia.
2-Instead of fighting the Al Qaeda or Taliban directly, let them have a chance to once again become state actors and present both Russia and China a serious threat.
3-Retain international goodwill by acting as a power which stands for peace.
4-Make the regional actors do the job of making the world a safer place.These include Russia,China,India,Iran,Saudi Arabia,Iraq,UAE etc.
5-Concentrate on the USA mainland and on intelligence assets rather than actual physical combat.
6-Create new client states dependent wholly on US support in the region.
7-Cease wasting a cent in states like Afghanistan,Pakistan and Iraq. Afghanistan should be managed by Russia,China,India,Iran and Pakistan who will countercheck each other and the area would have a permanent stalemate with no victors.Simlarly India and Pakistan will balance each other.Indians fear Pakistani nuclear devices more than USA and its quixotic to think that Pakistani nuclear devices would ever be used against USA.
The most important feature of the new strategy would be withdrawal from both Iraq and Afghanistan. This would immediately lead to a new power struggle with Iraq and Afghanistans neighbour also involved deeply rather than being silent spectators as now.
Any Taliban victory in Afghanistan and any Al Qaeda victory or a Shia victory in Iraq would restart the old Arab Iran struggle in Iraq.Fat oil rich Arab states would be spending all the money instead of the USA.
In Afghanistan also any Taliban resurgence would force Russia ,China,India and Iran to step in and the Taliban would still be contained without a single US cent wasted.
This is a pointless war with no tangible centre of gravity which what to talk of USA , no one can win.So the USA must make the dragons fight the dragons.Regardless of the fact that the dragons are Islamists,Russians,Iranians,Arabs,Indians or Pakistanis.
The USA needs to adopt a strategy which makes the Russians , Iranians,Pakistanis,Arabs and Indians stand on their toes.
The best strategy is to make others fight and if you do fight , fight with minimal expense ! Do the American decision makers have grey matter?! Thats the billion dollar question ?
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2010 ASSESSMENTS SUBSEQUENT TO THIS ARTICLE FOR ALEXANDRIAN DEFENSE GROUP -WASHINGTON DC
In order to have any strategy in war first it is necessary to examine what are the future possibilities :---
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE USA WITHDRAWS FROM AFGHANISTAN
A HYPOTHETICAL STUDY
By
Major Agha H Amin (Retired)
06 November 2010
POSSIBILITY ALPHA
1. The US/NATO/CIS/International Community retain a buffer peace keeping zone in Kabul Torkham Corridor.
2. This would act as a damper for Taliban and enable US/NATO/International forces to act as a strategic fire brigade in case of any major upset in Afghanistan.
3. A Russian/CIS force acts as peace keeping force in North Afghanistan in cooperation with Northern Alliance which enjoys support of majority of North Afghanistan population.
4. An Iranian peace keeping force in west Afghanistan.
5. A most balanced and rational solution
6.The only weak link is will the Taliban respect the arrangement ? No because they only fear Allah and have some respect for the B 52 !
POSIBILITY BRAVO
1. US Withdrawal while retaining the Kabul Torkham Corridor and a free for all international intervention.
2. The US/NATO lets the events take their own course with no formal agreement with regional parties.
3. India escalates against Pakistan to reduce pressure on Northern Alliance.
POSSIBILITY CHARLIE
1. THE US/NATO WITHDRAW TOTALLY NOT RETAINING ANY PRESENCE WHILE RUSSIA/CIS/IRAN/INDIA INTERVENE.
2. TALIBAN WILL OCCUPY GREATER PART OF AFGHANISTAN THAN POSSIBILITY ALPHA OR CHARLIE BUT CIVIL WAR CONTINUES.
3. INDIA ESCALATES AGAINST PAKISTAN TO SUPPORT NORTHERN ALLIANCE .
POSSIBILITY DELTA
1. THE US/NATO TOTALLY WITHDRAWS WHILE ONLY RUSSIA/CIS/INDIA INTERVENE.
2. TALIBAN OCCUPY GREATER AREA THAN POSSIBILITY ALPHA BRAVO AND CHARLIE BUT THE CIVIL WAR CONTINUES.
3. INDIA PAKISTAN CONFLICT WILL ESCALATE AS AN INDIAN RESPONSE TO REDRESS THE BALANCE IN AFGHANISTAN BY ESCALATING AGAINST PAKISTAN.
4. A CONVENTIONAL INDO PAK WAR STARTS INVOLVING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
Major Agha H Amin (Retired)
24/10/10
This brief paper is a hypothetical visualization of various strategic,operational and tactical possibilities in the Af Pak Region .
Broad Strategic Scenario
BROAD ORIENTATION OF TALIBAN GROUPS
A MORE DETAILED DIVISION OF TALIBAN AND US POSSIBLE STRATEGY
US Strategy appears to be neutralization and annihilation of the more radical Haqqani Company for strategic operational and face saving and a possible compromise with the less radical Mulla Omar and Hikmatyar Companies.
Another major objective is to drive a wedge in between Pakistani state and Haqqani and Company by focing Pakistan to take military action against Haqqani.
General Hameed Gul in various interviews recently has presented a twin power failure theory spread over 2 to five years :---
1. Failure and withdrawal of US from Afghanistan.
2. Islamists concentrate on Kashmir together with Chinese assistance and Indian withdrawal from Kashmir.
3. Maoists start a grand offensive with Chinese and Pakistani support and India is weakened and destabilized.
4. Islamists expand into Central Asia and Middle East.
5. General Gul also warned Islamists against any confrontation with China.
6. On the other hand US covert policy seems to be to provoke a major Islamist Insurrection in China which Gul says should be avoided at all costs.
US Options
1. Withdraw from Afghanistan without any major strategic denuclearizing of Pakistan and avoid a nuclear conflict which is likely if an attempt is made to denuclearize Pakistan with Indian assistance.Will straight lead to realization of Hameed Gul Theory.
2. There is a possibility that US unilateral withdrawal can lead to another war of interventions in Afghanistan with Russia and Iran in the lead:--
3. Retain partial presence in Afghanistan and partition it .A least risk and pragmatic approach strategically balanced and entirely feasible.
4. Launch an attack in Iran and expand the war . May be beyond US potential if not materially then at least in terms of resolution.A US state department official Doug Scherer termed US leadership as irresolute in case of Iran.
5. Denuclearise Pakistan , Balkanise the region , keep a permanent force in Af Pak .A dangerous possibility which can lead to a major conflict possibly nuclear with China stepping in.
--
Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death." --
Albert Einstein !!!
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22151765/History-of-Pakistan-Army-from-1757-to-1971
http://www.scribd.com/doc/21693873/Indo-Pak-Wars-1947-71-A-STRATEGIC-AND-OPERATIONAL-ANALYSIS-BY-A-H-AMIN
http://www.scribd.com/doc/21686885/TALIBAN-WAR-IN-AFGHANISTAN
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22455178/Letters-to-Command-and-Staff-College-Quetta-Citadel-Journal
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23150027/Pakistan-Army-through-eyes-of-Pakistani-Generals
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23701412/War-of-Independence-of-1857
http://www.scribd.com/doc/22457862/Pakistan-Army-Journal-The-Citadel
http://www.scribd.com/doc/21952758/1971-India-Pakistan-War
http://www.scribd.com/doc/25171703/BOOK-REVIEWS-BY-AGHA-H-AMIN
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