Comments on the article "Ten Years and Still Not Clear?"
By: Brig.FB Ali by Agha H Amin
It is rather remarkable that, ten years after having drawn Pakistan into its war in Afghanistan, the US is still not clear on the motivations that underlie Pakistan’s stance in this war, where they’re coming from, where they’re going. This doesn’t just apply to the self-styled ‘experts’ in Washington’s numerous think tanks; it also seems to apply, surprisingly, to administration policy makers.
Pakistan was making good money in Afghanistan since 1978 before which Pakistan under Zia was a pariah state internationally isolated and facing a crisis of internal stability following the 1977 military take over.
Such was Pakistans condition that its government did not have money to build the riad between its two Punjab key towns of Lahore and Multan and it was nearly impossible to drive from Lahore to Okara without getting your cars shock absorbers damaged or broken !
Thus the Afghan war of 1978 came as a grand party to Pakistans ugly looking General Zia , waged with the stated objective of Jihad or Holy war and the real objective of making US Dollars for Pakistans upstart generals from lower middle class Jullundhuri backgrounds !
When Pakistani states grand party ended in 1989 Pakistans security apparatus saw Afghanistan as a cheap recruiting ground for cannon fodder for its proxy wars in Kashmir and played a major role in converting Afghanistan into a bastion of extremism all for its proxy wars in Kashmir etc.
Again in post 9/11 Pakistans tinpot military dictator Musharraf again an international pariah with no parentage made immense gains from US entry in Afghanistan .Pakistans economy , in shambles before 9/11 and under pressure of embargos slammed on it in May 1998 grew by leaps and bounds in between 2001 and 2008 thanks largely to US aid and thanks to 9/11 after which many Pakustani immigrants started investing in Pakistan fearing a US inquisition against Pakistanis and Muslims in USA .
Typifying this confusion is the US government’s invention of the AfPak term to describe the theatre in which the war is going on. A term that had to be hastily dropped by officials, at least for public use, after Pakistan made it clear that it wasn’t amused. However, the US still thinks of it as the AfPak war, in which Pakistan’s function is to backstop and bolster US operations in Afghanistan. The generals conducting that war find it convenient to ascribe their lack of success to Pakistan’s failure to deliver, and keep demanding that Washington do something about it.
Pakistans generals because of being a pariah state and geopolitical orphans in 1977 had adopted USA as its father to fight Afghan war as US proxies because they were at war with Pakistans people after 5 July 1977 ! They continued to be US proxies in Afghanistan all along from 1978 to 1989 ! Pakistani military and intelligence was desperate and panting to be a US pawn in Afghanistan in exchange for dollars even after 1989 but was ignored by US .
The Taliban a former DG ISI in an interview with this scribe admitted were a largely Pakistan ran show .
Even during Taliban period Pakistani state was wooing US interests in supposrting US sponsored pipelines in Afghanistan etc .
Pakistans military wanted to get dollars which they did in 1978-1989 and 2001 till todate ! This is why the Americans call it Afpak ! Why don’t they call it Af-Iran ? Because the Iranians have not been as historically shameless as Pakistans generals !
This has led to the US alternately trying the carrot and the stick to get Pakistan to meet its requirements. Sometimes, money in the billions is offered as aid, on other occasions officials go to Islamabad, pound the table and make dire threats. So far, nothing seems to have really worked. The Pakistanis have been promising to clean up North Waziristan (as the US demands) for a long time, but won’t say exactly when. In public, US officials make sweet talk about strategic partnerships and such, in private, they probably grind their teeth and use unprintable language. It might be more constructive if they understood the problem they are dealing with.
Why does not Pakistans general have the moral courage to say no to USA ! They are happy with US aid , they do not have the resolution to resist US Drone attacks or even to shoot down a US drone ! Why the Pakistani military does not have a revolutionary coup maker like Tajammul Hussain Malik ?
This is a game being played by both sides ! The vast bulk of Taliban in Afghanistan are still Pakistan sponsored with logistics in Pakistani Balochistan and largely dependent on a drug economy routed through Pakistan for ultimate export overseas via Pakistani coastline.
The groups of Taliban that Pakistani military is fighting in FATA have no connection with 80 % of Taliban in Afghanistan facing 80 % of US forces ! These FATA Talibans are a creation of General Musharrafs arbitrary and unprovoked operations in FATA in 2003-2004.
The basic reality is that, in return for the substantial aid that the US is providing it, Pakistan will go along with US needs and requirements as far as it can, but it will not cross the red line where its own security is jeopardised. That line also extends to North Waziristan at present (as discussed below). The other red line for Pakistan, the one it will not let any other country (including the US) cross, is its sovereignty.
Naturally Pakistan will not attack groups friendly to Pakistan as is the case of North Waziristan .
As far as sovereignty is concerned it is a joke ! What has the brave Pakistani state done to resist drone attacks ?
Pakistan considers the biggest (perhaps the only) threat to its security comes from India. Its other major border (longer even than the one with India) is that with Afghanistan. Even though this border is not well defined in part, and sometimes disputed, Afghanistan in itself is not considered a security threat by Pakistan. However, it becomes a threat when it is under the control (or even influence) of a hostile power (exactly what the British thought when they ruled India). That is why Pakistan played such an active role in the war to oust Soviet troops from Afghanistan in the 1980s. Not because of the money the US gave it, but for its own security.
There was no threat to Pakistan in 1978 .Pakistan had a pariah military regime internationally isolated and that is why it picked up the Red Card as a convenient tool to get foreign aid !
Pakistans generals made good money in return and the Pakistani state also gained in terms of foreign aid !
Such was Pakistani militarys fixation with US Dollars that they were so busy in Afghanistan making money for the Jullundhuri war machine that the Pakistani intelligence headed by Major General Hameed Gul and Akhtar Abdul Rehman even failed to discover 35 miles Indian infiltration inside Siachen glacier !
It is hard to agree that some 114,000 Soviet soldiers were a threat to Pakistan ?
The current threat that Pakistan sees arising from Afghanistan is from the influence that India has acquired there, and the possibility of that increasing in the future. Pakistan will do whatever it takes to prevent Afghanistan from becoming an Indian client state. It would like, if possible, to ensure a future Afghanistan that is friendly, and it will do what is possible to bring that about. If that doesn’t happen, it will be content with a neutral Afghanistan. But it will not allow Afghanistan to become a hostile country.
The main foreign influence in Afghanistan after US is Russian and Iranian . Both fear Pakistani militarys adventurist plans in using Afghanistan as a nursery of Islamic extremists for its private wars .Iran mind you is a Muslim state and with far greater pride than Pakistans military and political leaders.
Iran , Russis and India came to aid of Northen Alliance when it was literally at its lifes end ! A senior leader of Northern Alliance admitted in an interview with this scribe that without Iranian aid they would not have survived !
Afghanistan is more complicated than Indian factor ! Here we have a situation where the Pakistani military is financing a group of lunatics who do not regard non Pashtuns , Shias or Ismailis as human beings at all !
The US AfPak war is over. Everyone knows that the Afghans, the regional powers, the Europeans, and now even the Americans (though some Permanent Warriors still have difficulty admitting it). So, what did it achieve, this 10-year war that killed and maimed tens of thousands of people, including lots of young Americans, and cost the US billions upon billions of dollars? About all it did was to knock down the Afghan chessboard, which deep war weariness in the country had enabled the Taliban to stabilize.
What about the many hundred thousands maimed and killed in between 1978 and 2001 when Pakistans generals made maximum money in Afghanistan ?
Now the board is being set up again, the Afghan pieces are manoeuvring to place themselves in the best opening positions, while the outside players are picking the pieces they are going to back. The US finds itself left with little choice but to back Hamid Karzai, upon whom it cannot fully rely. Karzai is also supported by India, which also backs some of the old Northern Alliance leaders. Iran has its players in the Karzai administration, and, possibly, Gulbuddin Hikmatyar in the insurgency. Pakistan will back the Taliban and the Haqqani insurgent groups.
Yes , this is a proxy war ! But one thing is clear .US withdrawal will lead to a new civil war in Afghanistan because Russia,Iran and India will not allow Afghanistan to be a cheao breeding ground for extremists ! Afghanistan is certainly more complicated than mere India versus Pakistan !
Based upon its past experience, Pakistan would be under no illusion that its protection and support of the Taliban and the Haqqani insurgents would translate into any kind of allegiance if they established themselves in Afghanistan. All it could count on would be their goodwill. The major attraction they have for Pakistan is that they can be relied upon to never come under the influence of India or Russia or the US. An Afghanistan ruled by them, or one in which they had adequate say, would not be a security worry for Pakistan. That is why it has a vital interest in their being strong players in the game about to begin.
It is understandable that Pakistani state supports Taliban.Pakistani state loves them because Talibans are Pakistani boys !This is well understood !
But how does Pakistan expect Iran and Russia to accept it !
Should Iran and Russia accept a state which is a perpetual threat to stability and security in the region !
The compromise solution lies in partition of Afghanistan !
Looked at from this angle, what the US is asking Pakistan to do is to attack and weaken its own pieces in the upcoming Afghan power game in order to strengthen the US’s (and India’s) piece ‒ Hamid Karzai. It is quite unrealistic to expect that Pakistan will thus undermine its own future security, whatever bribes and bullying the US resorts to. Impatient with Washington’s inability to get results, Gen Petraeus recently attacked the Haqqani group in North Waziristan ‒ without Pakistani permission. This crossed the second of Pakistan’s red lines ‒ its sovereignty ‒ and the response was immediate, and crushing : the US supply line into Afghanistan was cut. That particular tactic now appears to be effectively closed for the US.
The US gets 74 % fuel from Central Asia.The persons most damaged by Pakistans partial blockade , Spin Boldak was never closed were the ordinary Pashtuns who depend for subsistence on Pakistani wheat and oil ! The blocakde if it may be called one had no strategic consequence ! Pakistan gained little from it tangibly and this was proven at the so called strategic talks in Washington !
Some time back Pakistan made an interesting proposal to the US : instead of depending on Karzai to protect and further future US interests in Afghanistan, why not support Pakistan, which would undertake to do so? Naturally, the ‘world’s only superpower’ gave that short shrift. That leaves the US playing a weak hand in the coming Great Game. Its player, Karzai, could easily turn rogue, or he could lose effective power. Addicted to the use of military force, the US probably thinks it can restore the balance by employing it again, this time in ‘surgical strikes’. Nothing is more likely to ensure that this whole area remains a continuing threat to US security.
The US is under no illusion that it can win in Afghanistan ! All they are looking for is an exit strategy which is having an element of respectability in it ! There is no such possibility ! It is a catch 22 situation and the US will lose regardless of whether it stays or withdraws ! Pakistan too will lose in both cases !
The bottom line about AfPak would appear to be this. The US cannot win there ‒ because nobody can, nobody ever has. And, Pakistan cannot lose ‒ because it cannot afford to, and because geography and history are on its side.
--
Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death." --
Albert Einstein !!!
http://www.scribd.com/doc/21693873/Indo-Pak-Wars-1947-71-A-STRATEGIC-AND-OPERATIONAL-ANALYSIS-BY-A-H-AMIN
--
Man would indeed be in a poor way if he had to be restrained by fear of punishment and hope of reward after death." --
Albert Einstein !!!
http://www.scribd.com/doc/21693873/Indo-Pak-Wars-1947-71-A-STRATEGIC-AND-OPERATIONAL-ANALYSIS-BY-A-H-AMIN
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